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contentsoptions www.iiasa.ac.at 3summer 2018 ◼ options www.iiasa.ac.atwww.iiasa.ac.atoptions◼ summer 2018 summer 2018 ◼ options 1110 S cience diplomacy and international science cooperation overlap, but do not necessarily have the same objectives. Joint scientific ventures like IIASA produce important knowledge and to some extent overlap with the world of international diplomacy. While the goal of international science is to produce knowledge, science diplomacy however, is more about how countries use science to advance their interests—after all, diplomacy is the process of advancing a country’s national interests on the international stage. These national interests can be advanced at different levels using science. Most directly, a country can project influence through science or build a bridge to a country of interest. It can for instance, use science to advance its security or trade interests, or to gain access to needed technologies. It can be about better managing shared resources with another country, for example cross-boundary water issues. It can also be where the global interest is at stake, such as climate change or ocean pollution. Every country, whether developed or developing, has relationships with other countries, and increasingly these relationships have technological and scientific components. If we go beyond that and look at the global interest, science is critical to every one of the Sustainable Development Goals. Given the centrality of science to addressing international challenges, it is surprising that we do not have better mechanisms to integrate science into international diplomacy. Very few foreign ministries have science advisors. The UN has no integrated system for bringing science advice into its decisions. In general, policy decisions are made in individual countries, not by international organizations– hence the need for more vertical integration between international agencies and domestic science advisory systems, which is perhaps best achieved through science advisors linked to their diplomatic service. Even today, there is often a need for countries to be convinced that it is in their national interest to work together and use science for global advancement. If we want to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, we will have to think a lot more about how we connect scientific knowledge, decision making, the international community, UN agencies, and domestic policy. First, the United Nations and international organizations must better integrate their scientific advisory networks. As we think about the goals and the knowledge gaps that need to be filled, we also need to think about the system of science that will support this effort. The UN system does not currently have a coordinated system of science. This is sorely needed, and must reach beyond the heavily siloed system of UN agencies. Secondly, foreign ministries need to better integrate science into their processes. This is already happening in a number of countries as we are seeing through two organizations, the International Network for Government Science Advice and the Foreign Ministers’ Science and Technology Advisors Network–both of which I chair–that are working together to promote and link the professions of science advice and science diplomacy. The latter has grown from four countries when it started two years ago, to over 25 countries today. What we are seeing is that a growing number of countries are taking an interest in being part of a forum where these topics can be discussed by people who are deeply engaged in them. Ultimately, the success of these efforts will come from the demonstrated advantages it provides to countries. When one country sees other countries receiving benefits or advantages because it is using the tools of science diplomacy better or more effectively, they will take note. ◼ Q What are the most pressing economic challenges facing OECD member countries? A One of the main economic challenges that OECD member countries are facing today, is how to consolidate the economic recovery process, while making it inclusive, resilient, and sustainable–both in terms of environmental issues and making the recovery last. Perhaps the most pressing challenge for our generation is how to achieve productivity and inclusivity simultaneously. We need to make these aspects work together to avoid the increasing backlash that will occur if governments only focus on economic growth, which typically leaves many people behind. Similarly, if governments only focus on redistribution, there will not be enough impetus for economies to grow. Finding approaches that achieve both productivity and inclusivity is key to ensuring our sustainable future. Q Why do countries need to incorporate systems thinking when setting their economic policies? A The global economy now has an unprecedented number of links. For example, we live in a world where workers in Kenya lose their jobs when a volcano erupts in Iceland, because planes cannot fly the flowers they grow to the Netherlands for distribution to other countries. Therefore, I would argue that unless we adopt a systems approach, unless we employ systems thinking, we will fail to understand the complex world we are living in. Q How can countries adopt a systems approach to policymaking? A At the OECD, we promote evidence-based decision making, but of course there is no evidence about the future. We also know from experience that simply extrapolating from the past can be misguided. In the 1970s for instance, Ken Olsen, the President of Digital Equipment Corporation, famously stated that he could see no reason why anybody would ever want a computer in their home. A systems or complexity approach helps us to avoid such errors. A complex world is nonlinear–anticipation is not extrapolation. We are dealing with a world characterized by nonlinearities, tipping points, and asymmetrical relations where a small cause can have a big effect. To be able to tackle these issues, governments must change the ways in which they make and implement policies. An acceptance of complexity shifts governments from a top-down, siloed culture, to an enabling culture where evidence, experimentation, and modeling help to inform and develop stakeholder engagement and buy-in. Q What does the new OECD-IIASA strategic partnership entail, and what do you hope it will achieve? A The OECD and IIASA have been working together for many years, but it is now time to strengthen this partnership as both organizations can benefit from the others’ expertise. The economy is not just about growth. It does not exist in a bubble isolated from the hopes, stories, desires, and frustrations of the people it is supposed to serve. The economy is political. It is social, historical, and cultural. That is why we need systems thinking to understand the issues, anticipate the consequences of our decisions, and build resilience. Together we can shape a brighter future, for our economies, our societies, and all of our citizens. ◼ Further info www.iiasa.ac.at/events/OECD-18 Further info In November 2017, Gluckman delivered an IIASA 45th Anniversary Lecture on this topic. The full text is available online: www.iiasa.ac.at/events/Gluckman-18 Sir Peter Gluckman is the chief science advisor to the Prime Minister of New Zealand, and an IIASA Distinguished Visiting Fellow. Systems thinking is central to addressing global challenges In March, Secretary-General Angel Gurría of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) visited IIASA to agree a strategic partnership between the two institutions. Challenges toscience diplomacy www.iiasa.ac.atwww.iiasa.ac.at summer 2018 ◼ options 13 HOW SYSTEMS ANALYSIS HELPED MY CAREER South African scholar Elvis M. Nkoana won his SA-YSSP scholarship for research on “Impacts of Environmental Education on Perceptions of Climate Change Risks in Rural and Township Communities in Limpopo Province, South Africa.” He tells Options: “Participation in the SA-YSSP and taking up a short-term vacancy at IIASA accelerated the completion of my doctoral degree with the University of Antwerp in Belgium. The topic of “climate change adaptation” features much systems analysis and holistic/whole-systems thinking. My participation in the SA-YSSP and IIASA has instilled a systems approach in my professional career. Having both on my CV will bring benefits.” In 2015, South Africa stepped up its commitment to systems analysis by creating the Southern African Systems Analysis Centre–SASAC. Led by a consortium of four universities–the universities of the Western Cape, Limpopo, the Witwatersrand, and Stellenbosch– SASAC aims to strengthen systems analysis activities by supporting Honours students, PhD students, and postdoctoral researchers. SOUTH AFRICA – A model for systems analysis development? W hile addressing the future of science in a speech at the inauguration of South Africa’s Academy of Sciences in March 1995, President Nelson Mandela said “its health in this era of globalization depends critically on the exchange of ideas and collaboration in research across national and cultural boundaries.” That speech now seems prescient about the challenges South Africa’s scientists would face. That many of those scientists, including a new generation of PhD students, are using systems analysis and linking with IIASA to solve complex challenges in their country and on the African continent, would no doubt have pleased the much honoured Mandela. South Africa joined IIASA in 2007, but the genesis of the country’s current engagement with systems analysis lies in the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program (SA-YSSP), which ran for three years and saw close mentorship between IIASA and 80 scientists from the region, including 35 studying in South Africa. A review of the SA-YSSP in 2015 identified “a lack of in-depth training and capacity development for the students,” says Sepo Hachigonta, director for strategic partnerships at the National Research Foundation (NRF), the government agency funding SASAC. Where the SA-YSSP offered a three-month program for PhD students, SASAC offers an honours module in global change and systems analysis, and scholarships for a three-year PhD in systems analysis or related disciplines. Two-month courses in systems analysis methods are also available for PhD students, as well as three-week systems analysis courses for supervisors, postdocs, and researchers. “SASAC takes advantage of its partnership with IIASA while localising systems analysis from the South African and regional perspective,” says Hachigonta. STRENGTHENING THE LINKS According to Priscilla Mensah, director of human and infrastructure capacity development at the NRF, this perspective includes “focussing on students at the doctoral level and strengthening links between researchers in South Africa and at IIASA.” Mensah describes the three years of the SA-YSSP as a “critical experiment” and says SASAC is “an improved model with a lot of momentum.” The NRF funds South African researchers to travel to IIASA, but the hosting of IIASA researchers is limited by resources–a situation Mensah would like to change. She is keen to point to the issues students and researchers will be tackling, such as energy, water, and acid mine drainage. “These challenges are relevant to South Africa, the region, and the continent,” she says. South Africa’s dramatic cultural, social, and environmental diversity, combined with democratic youthfulness, provides plenty of scope for systems analysis. No wonder PhD student Sandile Ngcamphalala is fired up about the potential. With a SASAC research scholarship, his PhD focuses on “water policy monitoring and evaluation to improve water policy performance in the face of uncertainty.” He believes systems research is “central to the future of South African policymaking and strategic thinking on sustainable development.” Sandile wants “bigger picture thinking” and is excited by the opportunity of his SASAC scholarship. He would like to see the SASAC-IIASA partnership strengthened through exchange visits, information sharing, and training. Also on his wish list: “A greater focus on systems research.” At the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, Mary Scholes holds a research chair in systems analysis and teaches postgraduate students in systems analysis and global change. As director of postgraduate studies, she has worked closely on the transition from the SA-YSSP to the now three-year-old SASAC. She describes some of the thinking behind its creation: “It had to overlap with South Africa’s national priorities and actively address the legacy of apartheid.” A selection system ensures that students chosen for SASAC programs reflect South Africa’s diversity. Selection is carried out by the NRF, while scholars like Scholes deliver what she calls “a pipeline of competence” in systems analysis. The program is in its third year and currently has 60 PhD students. “Not only do we have the students, but we have the supervisors who also benefit by being part of the program,” says Scholes. South African and international experts participate in different elements of the course. IS THE SOUTH AFRICAN MODEL SUSTAINABLE AND TRANSFERABLE? For Mary Scholes the answer is a definite yes. She believes the key criteria are intellectual rigour and administrative efficiency combined with links to IIASA. “There’s a real benefit as IIASA scientists are research oriented and not as torn and distracted as South Africans who have to teach, do community service, and research,” says Scholes. Priscilla Mensah from the NRF is also confident that other countries could copy the model: “I think there was some nervousness at the beginning, but after three years (under the SA- YSSP) it was evident that this model can be replicated elsewhere.” As South Africa’s model of systems analysis capacity development has changed, so has its relationship with IIASA. Ulf Dieckmann co- chairs capacity development and academic training for IIASA and closely accompanied the transition from the SA-YSSP to SASAC. “Ideally, the holistic and cross-sectoral systems approach at IIASA can enable South Africa’s young democracy to home in on sustainable technological, environmental, and institutional solutions that took much longer to emerge elsewhere,” says Dieckmann. He describes the persistent commitment from the South African government as “exceptional” and is looking forward to “an even better dovetailing of IIASA contributions and the needs of South Africa and southern African institutions.” KS Further info www.iiasa.ac.at/sasac © University of South Africa Background: © esfera | Shutterstock © NRF © NRF 15www.iiasa.ac.at summer 2018 ◼ options14 options ◼ summer 2018 www.iiasa.ac.at Asia is currently home to 4.5 billion people, who use around 65% of the world’s water supply. Around 30% of the Asian population is already facing water scarcity. India and China have experienced close to double-digit GDP growth in recent years, as well as a population boom. Many river basins already cannot cope with the demands placed upon them. As the effects of climate change really become visible and a continued improvement of socioeconomic conditions cause population numbers to rise still further–with wealthier societies on average requiring more water anyway–what will happen to water supply and demand? Will the problems be worse in some areas than in others? What will exacerbate the situation? Can the problem be reduced? These are just some of the issues faced by policymakers in Asia today. IIASA Water Program researchers are coming to their aid using multiple hydrological models together with the latest global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Yusuke Satoh and a team of other IIASA researchers were tasked by the Asian Development Bank to evaluate the risks and find out which areas of the continent might be most vulnerable. Understanding potential risks are vital to developing management and adaptation strategies. Although there are studies on future water scarcity under climate change, they are all missing something essential. “Most existing studies discuss the impact of climate change on water scarcity, but because there were no water use scenarios, they couldn’t assess the impact of changing water demand,” says Satoh. This is groundbreaking work undertaken by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative as part of the IIASA Water Program. New scenarios WFaS was set up six years ago by IIASA, with partners including UNESCO, the International Water Association, and the World Water Council, to look at sustainable solutions to local, national, and global water challenges. It aims to include a wide range of stakeholders, rather than just scientific researchers. “The biggest feature of WFaS, I think, is stakeholder engagement,” says Satoh. ”In order to include as many potential futures as possible we need more, broader perspectives, and we need stakeholder opinions.” One of the major achievements of WFaS has been to develop water use scenarios. The scenarios were developed at a WFaS stakeholder meeting and were based on the five existing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The SSP scenarios were originally developed by IIASA researchers to suggest different ways in which the world and society could progress, depending on decisions made by policymakers and society, while the RCPs are the four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in compiling its Fifth Assessment Report. IIASA was also involved in the development of the RCPs. “The SSP and RCP scenarios do not include information on water use, because their interest is emissions,” explains Satoh. “What we did, is develop water use scenarios to make projections for water security.” Each scenario is a combination of an SSP and an RCP. “For each combination of SSP and RCP, we assumed water use change according to socioeconomic change. In SSP1, society will Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? Water scarcity in Asia is likely to get worse over the coming decades, and new research from the IIASA Water Program has shown that increased water demand due to socioeconomic development is likely to be the main cause in large parts of the continent. Image © Josh Zakary | Flickr WHAT DRIVES MIGRATION? IIASA research is providing a scientific basis to help design evidence-based migration policies that will benefit Europe while ensuring humanitarian needs are met are IIASA’s population projections, which were updated this year to include data up to 2015 and published in a new book in the context of CEPAM. These multidimensional projections include not only age and sex, but also education levels, labor participation, and other factors that play a huge role in migration dynamics. In April 2018, Lutz and colleagues presented the updated projections to policymakers in Brussels, along with initial findings from the initiative. DOES THE EU NEED MIGRANTS? Initial migration scenarios developed through the partnership highlight that the EU’s future labor force depends not only on migration, but also on the proportion of people working. While it is true that Europe’s population is growing older on average, women and people over the age of 65 have been becoming increasingly active in the European labor market in recent years, coinciding with higher rates of education. The research finds that at current rates of labor force participation, the labor force size would indeed decline substantially until 2060. However, if women were to work across the EU at rates common in Sweden, the decline would be much smaller, and could be shored up by a moderate rate of migration. Lutz notes that other factors could also drive changes in labor force participation, for example increasing automation that could reduce the need for unskilled workers, while potentially increasing the need for more educated workers. ASSESSING INTEGRATION Another unique research project focuses on individuals, modeling not just the broad population using three or four attributes, but individuals with a large variety of characteristics including demographic (age and sex, education), ethno-cultural (place of birth, ethnicity, language, religion), and economic (labor activity, employment). Such a detailed view of a subset of the population—a method known as microsimulation—could help answer trickier questions, such as how well immigrants might be able to adjust to their new countries, learn the language, find jobs, and effectively integrate into society. It could also be used to help assess the effectiveness of such policies. Alain Bélanger—a former participant in the IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program—rejoined IIASA in 2016 to develop a microsimulation model that could take into account more of the complexities and dynamics of multiple, highly diverse population groups. He says, “The macro-level approach cannot be used to model the complexities and dynamics of super-diverse populations because it has practical limits in the number of events, states, and groups that it can model.” A GLOBAL VIEW While the project focuses on Europe-specific scenarios, the research takes into account the broader context of worldwide drivers of migration. For example, Lutz notes that population growth in Africa will be a key driver defining how strong future migration will be from the continent. Climate change, which can contribute to conflicts, food insecurity, or other challenges, may be another indirect driver of migration, and IIASA researchers are exploring this aspect as well. Lutz says, “You can’t model migration in Europe without understanding the global demographic drivers.” This big-picture view is a key reason that the IIASA World Population Program was perfectly placed to step in when the EU needed assistance. As their models become more detailed, IIASA demographers hope their research will help policymakers gain a better understanding of the people they are working to help. KL I n the summer of 2015, IIASA researchers living in Vienna had a front-row seat to a wave of refugees entering Europe from war-torn Syria and other regions including Africa and the Middle East. The train station where IIASA scientists catch the bus to work, was packed with people in transit. People stood in long ticket lines wrapping through the central hall for hours on end. Families slept on cots in a makeshift shelter and shared meals sitting on the station floor. For IIASA demographers, migration is one of the key variables in their work. Yet, for researchers who often work on a highly theoretical plane, the scene at the Vienna train station was a reminder of just how relevant their work can be—and a harbinger of how great the demand would soon become for science-based models of future migration. “Migration is one of the three basic components of demographic change,” explains IIASA World Population Program director Wolfgang Lutz, who is also the founding director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital. “Other than fertility—birth rates, and mortality—death rates, migration is the only way the size of a country’s population can change.” AN URGENT NEED FROM EU POLICYMAKERS Since the summer of 2015, migration has become an increasingly divisive issue across Europe. Some argue that refugees bring problems such as crime and terrorism, or that they can’t integrate well because of their different religions, languages, or education levels. Others argue that Europe actually needs more migration in order to shore up its social system, as declining fertility and longer lifespans have led to a greater proportion of older people in the population. Despite these popular but contradictory narratives, there is actually very little systematic analysis for projecting how migration will develop and what its impacts will be on Europe’s labor force and society, says Lutz. That is why in 2016, EU policymakers turned to IIASA to launch a new partnership for migration research. The Center of Expertise on Population and Human Migration (CEPAM) includes five researchers at IIASA and five at the European Union’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), who are conducting applied research that provides timely answers for policymakers’ urgent questions. “What we’re trying to do is look at the big picture and the long term. We are looking at the drivers of migration–what we call pull factors that entice people towards a new country, and push factors that drive people to leave their homes,” says Lutz, who is leading the partnership. The plan is to produce a set of scenarios that can show the potential impacts of different immigration policies, allowing policymakers to make educated decisions and smarter plans. Although only in its second year, the partnership has already produced several insights and new methods that could provide a more scientific basis for policymaking. At the core of these efforts REFERENCES Abel G (2017). Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015. International Migration Review: 1-44. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14977] Lutz W, Goujon A, Samir KC, Stonawski M, & Stilianakis N (2018) Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15226] Lutz W, Butz WP, KC S (2017). World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15149] Lutz W & Belanger A (2017). Demographic change and the drivers of future migration into Europe. Approach, methodology and work plan of the JRC/ IIASA Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14535] FURTHER INFORMATION: More in-depth highlights of this research can be found in the latest issue of POPNET www.iiasa.ac.at/popnet/49 UPDATED PROJECTIONS: www.iiasa.ac.at/news/migration-book-18 WOLFGANG LUTZ: lutz@iiasa.ac.at Estimated global migration flows by gender 2010-15 While global migration flows have been assumed to increase over time, a recent study by IIASA researcher Guy Abel estimates that in fact, the proportion of the global population that migrates has remained steady at 0.65% of the global population over each five-year period since the 1960s. (Abel G, 2017) JointResearchCentre PF-Demographic.indd 1 26.02.18 10:30 Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century 2018 assessment for 201 countries Wolfgang Lutz, Anne Goujon, Samir KC, Marcin Stonawski, Nikolaos Stilianakis (Eds.) www.iiasa.ac.atwww.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ summer 201818 www.iiasa.ac.atwww.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ summer 2018 summer 2018 ◼ options 1110 S cience diplomacy and international science cooperation overlap, but do not necessarily have the same objectives. Joint scientific ventures like IIASA produce important knowledge and to some extent overlap with the world of international diplomacy. While the goal of international science is to produce knowledge, science diplomacy however, is more about how countries use science to advance their interests—after all, diplomacy is the process of advancing a country’s national interests on the international stage. These national interests can be advanced at different levels using science. Most directly, a country can project influence through science or build a bridge to a country of interest. It can for instance, use science to advance its security or trade interests, or to gain access to needed technologies. It can be about better managing shared resources with another country, for example cross-boundary water issues. It can also be where the global interest is at stake, such as climate change or ocean pollution. Every country, whether developed or developing, has relationships with other countries, and increasingly these relationships have technological and scientific components. If we go beyond that and look at the global interest, science is critical to every one of the Sustainable Development Goals. Given the centrality of science to addressing international challenges, it is surprising that we do not have better mechanisms to integrate science into international diplomacy. Very few foreign ministries have science advisors. The UN has no integrated system for bringing science advice into its decisions. In general, policy decisions are made in individual countries, not by international organizations– hence the need for more vertical integration between international agencies and domestic science advisory systems, which is perhaps best achieved through science advisors linked to their diplomatic service. Even today, there is often a need for countries to be convinced that it is in their national interest to work together and use science for global advancement. If we want to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, we will have to think a lot more about how we connect scientific knowledge, decision making, the international community, UN agencies, and domestic policy. First, the United Nations and international organizations must better integrate their scientific advisory networks. As we think about the goals and the knowledge gaps that need to be filled, we also need to think about the system of science that will support this effort. The UN system does not currently have a coordinated system of science. This is sorely needed, and must reach beyond the heavily siloed system of UN agencies. Secondly, foreign ministries need to better integrate science into their processes. This is already happening in a number of countries as we are seeing through two organizations, the International Network for Government Science Advice and the Foreign Ministers’ Science and Technology Advisors Network–both of which I chair–that are working together to promote and link the professions of science advice and science diplomacy. The latter has grown from four countries when it started two years ago, to over 25 countries today. What we are seeing is that a growing number of countries are taking an interest in being part of a forum where these topics can be discussed by people who are deeply engaged in them. Ultimately, the success of these efforts will come from the demonstrated advantages it provides to countries. When one country sees other countries receiving benefits or advantages because it is using the tools of science diplomacy better or more effectively, they will take note. ◼ Q What are the most pressing economic challenges facing OECD member countries? A One of the main economic challenges that OECD member countries are facing today, is how to consolidate the economic recovery process, while making it inclusive, resilient, and sustainable–both in terms of environmental issues and making the recovery last. Perhaps the most pressing challenge for our generation is how to achieve productivity and inclusivity simultaneously. We need to make these aspects work together to avoid the increasing backlash that will occur if governments only focus on economic growth, which typically leaves many people behind. Similarly, if governments only focus on redistribution, there will not be enough impetus for economies to grow. Finding approaches that achieve both productivity and inclusivity is key to ensuring our sustainable future. Q Why docountries needtoincorporate systems thinkingwhensetting their economic policies? A The global economy now has an unprecedented number of links. For example, we live in a world where workers in Kenya lose their jobs when a volcano erupts in Iceland, because planes cannot fly the flowers they grow to the Netherlands for distribution to other countries. Therefore, I would argue that unless we adopt a systems approach, unless we employ systems thinking, we will fail to understand the complex world we are living in. Q How can countries adopt a systems approach to policymaking? A At the OECD, we promote evidence-based decision making, but of course there is no evidence about the future. We also know from experience that simply extrapolating from the past can be misguided. In the 1970s for instance, Ken Olsen, the President of Digital Equipment Corporation, famously stated that he could see no reason why anybody would ever want a computer in their home. A systems or complexity approach helps us to avoid such errors. A complex world is nonlinear–anticipation is not extrapolation. We are dealing with a world characterized by nonlinearities, tipping points, and asymmetrical relations where a small cause can have a big effect. To be able to tackle these issues, governments must change the ways in which they make and implement policies. An acceptance of complexity shifts governments from a top-down, siloed culture, to an enabling culture where evidence, experimentation, and modeling help to inform and develop stakeholder engagement and buy-in. Q What does the new OECD-IIASA strategic partnership entail, and what do you hope it will achieve? A The OECD and IIASA have been working together for many years, but it is now time to strengthen this partnership as both organizations can benefit from the others’ expertise. The economy is not just about growth. It does not exist in a bubble isolated from the hopes, stories, desires, and frustrations of the people it is supposed to serve. The economy is political. It is social, historical, and cultural. That is why we need systems thinking to understand the issues, anticipate the consequences of our decisions, and build resilience. Together we can shape a brighter future, for our economies, our societies, and all of our citizens. ◼ Further info www.iiasa.ac.at/events/OECD-18 Further info In November 2017, Gluckman delivered an IIASA 45th Anniversary Lecture on this topic. The full text is available online: www.iiasa.ac.at/events/Gluckman-18 Sir Peter Gluckman is the chief science advisor to the Prime Minister of New Zealand, and an IIASA Distinguished Visiting Fellow. Systemsthinking is central to addressingglobal challenges In March, Secretary-General Angel Gurría of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) visited IIASA to agree a strategic partnership between the two institutions. Challenges to science diplomacy 2 editorial 2 Building bridges to a sustainable future 4 research news 4 Gender discrimination results in the deaths of extra 239,000 girls per year in India  Removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped 5 Thinking outside the box on climate mitigation  ‘Modest’ climate benefits from LPG cooking  Climate change policy and future wellbeing  Who pays for climate loss and damage?  Sea level rises with peak emission delays 6 Models show how to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C  Ethane and propane emissions have been underestimated  2°C rise doubles the population exposed to multiple climate risks  Achieving healthy, climate-friendly, affordable diets in India  Education, not income, the best predictor of a long life 7 research tools & methods 7 Mathematical models and armed conflict–A case for caution 8 science into policy 8 Informing robust integrated policies for a sustainable future 9 Shaping the future of public transport in Sweden  Facilitating co-operation in turbulent times  Accounting for diversity  Keeping track of climate targets 20 regional focus 20 africa Finding a reason for increased fertility among Egyptian women  Prototype land cover map of Africa: Great start but more accuracy needed 21 americas Mitigating risks from crude-by-rail transportation  Crowdsourcing information to help farmers in Mexico increase crop yields 22 asia Finding opportunities for change in disaster  Accommodating growth without increasing environmental pressure 23 europe Predicting likely outcomes for effective strategic planning  Analyzing the impact of climate change on European agriculture 24 institute news 24 A harmonious partnership continues  A summer dedicated to science 25 Israel joins IIASA  IIASA researcher appointed to prestigious position in Finland  EGU honors Yoshihide Wada  Kabat accepts a new challenge  Recognition for excellence in geosciences 26 people at iiasa 26 yssp “The happiest three months of my life” Yaoping Wang, a 2017 YSSP participant and Peccei Award recipient, talks about her experiences at IIASA yssp “The best part of the YSSP is the people” Jose Pablo Ortiz Partida participated in the 2017 YSSP and recently won funding to return to IIASA in 2018 27 interview Seasonal pumped-storage – the answer to water and energy security? Q&A with Brazilian IIASA postdoc Julian Hunt 10 opinion Ch llenges to s i c lomacy By Sir Peter Gluckman 11 Q & A Systems thinking is central to addressing global challenges Interview with Angel Gurría 12 South Africa – A model for systems analysis development? South Africa stepped up its commitment to systems analysis by creating the Southern African Systems Analysis Centre–SASAC 14 cover feature Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? Water scarcity in Asia is likely to get worse over the coming decades 18 What drives migration? IIASA research is providing a scientific basis to help design evidence-based migration policies Cover photo © Ruslan Grumble | Shutterstock