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© Adam Islaam | IIASA variability, there is an increasing demand for research that can help countries adapt their agriculture to new, and potentially unpredictable climate conditions. Researchers in the IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program use the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to incorporate different dimensions into their analysis. The model allows them to assess the impacts of climate change on production, the influence of various climate policies, and the impacts of agriculture and different production methods on land-use change and direct emissions to build scenarios that can inform policy. This systematic analysis is especially important because of the many complex interactions between food, water, energy, and land use. Making policies to mitigate climate change without understanding these interconnections could create unanticipated problems. For instance, a study led by IIASA researcher Tomoko Hasegawa found that taxes targeted at solving climate change could lead to more food insecurity than the impacts of climate change itself. A blanket carbon tax would lead to increased food prices, in particular on meat and rice, which are responsible for a large share of greenhouse gas emissions, and would especially impact food availability in developing countries. Other studies, such as one published in 2016, identified potential trade-offs between policies designed to preserve water and biodiversity, as well as address climate change. How systems analysis informs solutions While research results that identify tradeoffs and unintended impacts of well-intentioned policies can seem dismaying, it is the first step to finding solutions to complex global challenges like food security. IIASA systems analysis methods allow researchers to examine the impacts of many potential policies, with many variations in climate, energy, and population scenarios, allowing them to understand the broader impact of potential policy solutions. On a global scale, recent studies from the ESM team are showing the potential of both changes in diet (towards a more vegetarian diet) and changes in production that make agriculture more efficient, particularly in the livestock sector. Combinations of incentives and taxes could help achieve these shifts. IIASA researchers are also applying their research at a national scale to help countries build “climate smart” agricultural policies that can help them increase domestic food production while reducing the climate impact of agriculture. IIASA researcher Amanda Palazzo, for example, led an analysis used by the World Bank and the Agricultural Ministry of Zambia in a new agricultural plan for the country. Towards zero hunger One of the most frustrating aspects of the challenge of food security is that there is enough food on the planet today to feed every person. Due to distribution challenges, inequity, inadequate storage, and waste, we however don’t even come close to putting food on everyone’s plate. There is of course no simple solution. Policies need to take the links between agriculture and climate change into account, and recognize that solutions will involve attention to agricultural production, diet, trade, and issues of access. Researchers also point to education as a major area that could help change habits and lead to healthier, more sustainable diets. “People need to realize that their diets have an important impact both on the planet and on their health,” says Valin. “Habits have deep cultural roots, and it’s hard to accept that the ways we satisfy our appetite can have long term personal and large-scale impacts.” Further info: Hasegawa T, Fujimori S, Havlík P, Valin H, Bodirsky BL, Doelman JC, Fellmann T, Kyle P et al. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change 8(8): 699-703 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15389] Luan Y, Fischer G, Wada Y, Sun L, & Shi P (2018). Quantifying the impact of diet quality on hunger and undernutrition. Journal of Cleaner Production 205: 432-446. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15476] Muttarak R (2018). Too few nutrients and too many calories: climate change and the double burden of malnutrition in Asia. Asian Population Studies: 1-7. (In Press) [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15575] Rao N, Min J, DeFries R, Ghosh-Jerath S, Valin H, & Fanzo J (2018). Healthy, affordable and climate-friendly diets in India. Global Environmental Change 49: 154-165. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15167] World Bank (2019). Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan Zambia: Analyses to support the climate-smart development of Zambia’s agriculture sector. Raya Muttarak: muttarak@iiasa.ac.at Hugo Valin: valin@iiasa.ac.at Yibo Luan: whuyimu@hotmail.com Narasimha Rao: nrao@iiasa.ac.at www.iiasa.ac.at 15OptionsSummer 2019