Page - 431 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

18 LossandDamage in theRapidlyChangingArctic 431 Researchonsocio-economicimpactshasalsoshownthatbiophysicalchangesare impactinganthropogenicactivities in theArcticdirectly,but also indirectly through increased economic interests, such as inmineral exploitation and other industrial developments,affectingtraditionallanduseandcausingpollution.Therearenumber of strands in the impacts and vulnerability literature andmany of these categories touchupon the topics included in the internationalLossandDamagedebate,which weplaceinsevenlooselydefinedcategories(Table18.1).Theclassificationisbased onthemainfocusof thestudiesas indicatedbytitle,abstractandkeywords.Studies modelling thechangesor impactsofclimatechange focuson theArcticasawhole. Smaller scale ecological or biological studies tend to be site-specificwith varying considerationsgiventotheirgeneralisabilityacrossareas.Themajorityofstudiesthat address socio-economic aspects, either throughvulnerability or adaptation, tend to considera specificcommunityorcountry.Aspartof thesestudies,NorthAmerican analyses were very well represented whereas there were fewer studies from the NordicArctic (Finland,Sweden,Norway)andSiberia (Russia). Figure 18.1 presents these Arctic studies as a “keywordmining” visualisation made bymeans of VOSviewer software. The termmap is based on a text corpus option tovisualise themain topics found in thearticles.Thefigureshows theessen- tial keywordsmost frequently encountered terms related toArctic climate impacts and risks topic, extracted from the article titles and abstracts. 83 terms that met the threshold of appearance 10 times were selected. The size of the circles indi- cates frequenciesofkeywords.Circlecolours indicatecloserelatednessof the terms (substance-wise). The termsmarkedwith the samecolour formacluster of related terms that canbeseenasa topic.Linesexpressco-occurrenceof the termsbetween theclusters either in thearticle title, or abstract, orboth. As can be seen from the terms that emerged, much focus has been placed on research into impacts related to infrastructure andvulnerability.Bothof thesehave implications for the debate onLoss andDamage, even though thedebate itself has largelybeenignoredinthecontextof theArctic.Studieshavecentredonidentifying the impactsofclimatechangeonArcticsocieties in termsofboth infrastructureand socio-economicconditions, and theirability toadapt.Theseanalysescanbeused to identifytowhatextentcommunitiesareabletoadaptorwhethertheywillexperience lossesanddamagesarising fromimpacts that theyarenot able toadapt to. 18.3.1 Biophysical Impacts Since the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental PanelonClimateChange(IPCC), ithasbeenrecentlyestimated that thedecreaseof Arcticseaiceismorerapidthanaccordingtopreviousestimations(Hareetal.2011) andtheArcticmeltingwill significantlyaffectsea level riseglobally(AMAP2017). Climate change effects on sea ice-based ecosystems are likely to have significant consequences,includingpossibleextinctionofsomespecies(JohannessenandMiles 2011). Another significant long-term trend in the Arctic areas is the thaw of the