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Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies
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Energies2018,11, 2080 howtheNNismuch lessdependenton the chosen thresholdwhile theARperformance is clearly thrownoffbyamisadjustedthreshold. Table4.Forecastingerror (RMSE)withdifferentHDDthresholdadjustment inBarcelona. TypeofDayand Model HDDThreshold 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Overall AR 2.00% 1.98% 1.96% 1.95% 1.94% 1.92% 1.91% 1.91% 1.91% 1.91% 1.92% 1.93% 1.94% NN 1.92% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% 1.94% 1.92% 1.92% 1.93% 1.92% 1.92% 1.93% 1.93% 1.94% Hot AR 2.62% 2.63% 2.63% 2.62% 2.60% 2.58% 2.55% 2.53% 2.50% 2.48% 2.46% 2.43% 2.45% NN 2.54% 2.55% 2.55% 2.53% 2.56% 2.54% 2.55% 2.54% 2.52% 2.51% 2.51% 2.46% 2.47% Cold AR 2.16% 2.11% 2.07% 2.03% 2.00% 1.99% 1.99% 1.99% 1.99% 2.00% 2.01% 2.02% 2.02% NN 1.65% 1.67% 1.69% 1.71% 1.71% 1.68% 1.71% 1.68% 1.72% 1.67% 1.71% 1.69% 1.69% 1.70% 1.73% 1.76% 1.79% 1.82% 1.85% 1.88% 1.91% 1.88% 1.90% 1.92% 1.94% 1.96% 1.98% 2.00% 2.02% 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 HDD Threshold (ÂșC) Overall Accuracy vs HDD threshold offset BAR - AR BAR - NN ZAR - AR ZAR - NN Figure10.Overall forecastingerror (RMSE)withdifferentHDDthresholdadjustment inBarcelona andZaragoza. 4.4.NumberofNeurons Thenumberof neurons in thehidden layer affects both computational burdenand theNN’s performance. Therefore,bothaspectsarereportedasresultsonthis test. Table5showstheaccuracy of theneuralnetworkas thenumberofneurons is increased. Inaddition, the forecasting timefora single24-hproïŹle is included. It isworthnoticing that therestof forecastingprocesses likedataaccess or treatmentalsoconsumetimeand, therefore, thereportedtimeisnot theonlyconcern inorder to obtaina timely forecast. Table5.Forecastingerror (RMSE)andexecutiontimewithdifferentnumberofneurons. TypeofDay NumberofNeurons 3 4 5 10 15 20 Overall 1.56% 1.55% 1.56% 1.55% 1.58% 1.62% Regular 1.49% 1.46% 1.45% 1.44% 1.46% 1.50% Special 2.00% 2.10% 2.28% 2.31% 2.36% 2.46% Hot 2.00% 1.93% 1.95% 1.93% 2.00% 2.04% Cold 1.55% 1.45% 1.51% 1.48% 1.51% 1.58% Time(s) 1.610 1.615 1.620 1.630 1.639 1.643 Testconditions: 7YT,10RN,5TL,12MF,7/14LAG. 151
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Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies
Title
Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies
Authors
Wei-Chiang Hong
Ming-Wei Li
Guo-Feng Fan
Editor
MDPI
Location
Basel
Date
2019
Language
English
License
CC BY 4.0
ISBN
978-3-03897-583-0
Size
17.0 x 24.4 cm
Pages
448
Keywords
Scheduling Problems in Logistics, Transport, Timetabling, Sports, Healthcare, Engineering, Energy Management
Category
Informatik
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Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies