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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
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125 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle In this chapter. the above findings are compared with those of earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle. Some of them relate to specific sectors, some others only to the business cycle of the whole Austrian economy. There are several studies on this topic, using different methods and reference series. Only few of them fo- cus on an explicit dating of the Austrian business cycle and none of them applies such dating on a sectoral level. Therefore no ear- lier study can be compared directly with the findings of the pre- sent one. Even their time horizon often differs substantially. Despite this problem, the most relevant studies on the subject are compared with the results of this study in order to check the ro- bustness of such dating or to give a more complete picture of the past. Some studies do not present explicit results for Austria, but only for the core of the euro area. An example is Darvas -Szapary (2005) who analysed the business cycle synchronisation in the enlarged EU and therefore set up a group of countries represent- ing the core of the EU. They compared the business cycle varia- tions of these core countries (Austria, Belgium. France Germany. Italy and the Netherlands) with those of several different groups of central and eastern European countries. The only aspect of their studies that is of interest in this context is that among the core countries there exists a very high degree of business cycle syn- chronisation. This is reflected by high correlations, low volatility, small leads/lags. similar and high persistence and similar impulse- response function 113• The following studies present more details. which makes it worth to compare each of them separately to the findings of our study. They are ordered according to the consid- eration they give to business cycle variations in Austria and their detail of analysis qualifying them for a comparison. In section 9 .15 113 See Darvas -Szap6ry (2005), p. 27.
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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
Titel
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Autor
Marcus Scheiblecker
Verlag
PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
Ort
Frankfurt
Datum
2008
Sprache
englisch
Lizenz
CC BY 4.0
ISBN
978-3-631-75458-0
Abmessungen
14.8 x 21.0 cm
Seiten
236
Schlagwörter
Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
Kategorien
International
Recht und Politik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

  1. Zusammenfassung V
  2. Abstract IX
  3. List of figures and tables XV
  4. List of abbreviations XVII
  5. List of variables XIX
  6. 1. Research motivation and overview 1
  7. 2. The data 7
  8. 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
    1. 3. 1 Defining the business cycle 13
      1. 3. 1 . 1 The classical business cycle definition 13
      2. 3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
    2. 3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 16
      1. 3.2. l Outliers 18
      2. 3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
      3. 3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
      4. 3.2.4 The trend 23
  9. 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
    1. 4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
      1. 4. l . l The empirical NBER approach 42
      2. 4.1 .2 Index models 44
    2. 4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
  10. 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
    1. 5. 1 Time domain statistics for analysing comovements 55
    2. 5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing comovements 56
      1. 5.2.1 Coherence 57
      2. 5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
      3. 5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
      4. 5.2.4 Cohesion 59
  11. 6. Dating the business cycle 61
    1. 6.1 The expert approaches 63
    2. 6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
    3. 6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
    4. 6.4 Threshold autoregressive models 69
  12. 7. Analysis of turning points 71
    1. 7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 71
    2. 7.2 Contingency tab/es for turning points 72
    3. 7.3 The intrinsic lead and lag classification of dynamic factor models 74
    4. 7.4 Concordance indicator 74
    5. 7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
    6. 7.6 Mean absolute deviation 76
    7. 7.7 Triangle approximation 76
  13. 8. Results 79
    1. 8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 79
      1. 8.1.1 First-order differences 79
      2. 8.1.2 The HP filter 80
      3. 8.1.3 The BK filter 80
    2. 8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
      1. 8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle reference series 86
      2. 8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by a dynamic factor model approach 97
    3. 8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
      1. 8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc selection framework 104
      2. 8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the dynamic factor model framework 115
  14. 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
    1. 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
    2. 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
    3. 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
    4. 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
    5. 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
    6. 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
    7. 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
    8. 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
    9. 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
    10. 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
    11. 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
    12. 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
    13. 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
    14. 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
    15. 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
    16. 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
    17. 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
  15. 10. Concludlng remarks 161
  16. References 169
  17. Annex 177
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