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change of the year 1985-1986 and a trough two years later. Artis -
Krolzig - Toro (2004) found turning points with opposite signs in the
respective periods, however. The authors used a different defini-
tion of the business cycle by focussing on the classical cycle. This
obviously seems to matter a lot. For economic policy, this would
require a different stance.
The results by Artis -Krolzig - Toro (2004) deviate not so much from
our findings, but show more cycles. One reason could be that our
criteria for identifying turning points are more restrictive than their
Markov-switching model approach.
9. 15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle
In order to date the euro area business cycle, only our results
based on just HP- and BK-filtered data can be compared with
those of other studies, as our dynamic factor model approach
does not consider the euro area as a whole, but Austria, Germany
and the rest of the euro area separately. In chapter 3, this ap-
proach was justified by avoiding a bias towards a common cycli-
cality which could result from the large economic weight of Ger-
many in the euro area aggregate.
The studies defining the business cycle in the classical way show
fewer cycles than the others, but between them the respective re-
sults correspond quite well. Only for rather strong recessions and
booms our HP- and BK-filtered results match with their findings. This
is true for the peak at the beginning of 1980 and the troughs in
1982 and 1993.
The turning point dates of the CEPR seem to lead ours by some
quarters in most cases. Furthermore, the authors found an extra
cycle between 1997 and 1999, which was not recognised by our
Bry-Boschan routine. On the other hand, the studies by Forni et al.
(2000) and Artis - Kro/zig - Toro (2004) show results quite similar to
ours, but with leads and lags varying somewhat over time.
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Titel
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Autor
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Verlag
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Ort
- Frankfurt
- Datum
- 2008
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Abmessungen
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Seiten
- 236
- Schlagwörter
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Kategorien
- International
- Recht und Politik
Inhaltsverzeichnis
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177