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to be an indicator of aggregate economic activity like GDP2• A
comovement of such fluctuations in other economic time series -
whether interrelated or not -would also fulfil this criterion.
Long - P/osser ( 1983) stressed the comovements of sectoral output
fluctuations as being one of the important features of business cy-
cles. Hornstein (2000) found, that these sectoral links show up in
several time series like gross output. value added and materials
and energy use. Rebelo (2005) supplied evidence for the strong
correlation between hours employed by industry and total hours
employed by the private sector. This strong comovement in eco-
nomic time series like sectoral output3 probably induced Lucas
( 1977) to argue that business cycles were driven by aggregate
shocks and not by sector-specific ones.
Despite the widely accepted view of the existence of only one
business cycle driven by aggregated shocks, these variations can
show up in sectoral time series with different amplitudes and with
some lagging or leading characteristics. Indeed, the prominent
NBER approach for detecting business cycles is based on sorting
the different time series by their leading and lagging properties.
Beside the view that supports the existence of only one business
cycle, studies based on band pass filters and spectral analysis
methods reveal several cycles, all of which represent frequencies
qualifying them for being business cycles. Apart from this, there are
also statistical reasons for observing business cycle movements at
the detailed sectoral level. It is quite easy to understand that if a
2 In fact, most studies on business cycles concentrate on GDP or industrial produc-
tion as reference series.
3 The European System of National Accounts uses the term "sectors" only for subdi-
viding the economy by the sectors "government", "private households", "enterprises"
and the "external sector". Nevertheless, the English literature uses the term sector for
different branches which is followed in the underlying study, too. In the terminology
of the European System of National Accounts these are described as "kind of ac-
tivities".
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Titel
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Autor
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Verlag
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Ort
- Frankfurt
- Datum
- 2008
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Abmessungen
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Seiten
- 236
- Schlagwörter
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Kategorien
- International
- Recht und Politik
Inhaltsverzeichnis
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177