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8
velopments than by weather conditions. Boehm ( 1998) pro-
vides clear empirical evidence for the better suitability of pro-
duction series adjusted for this primary sector component.
• Real value added of manufacturing at market prices in a
wider sense. This includes NACE16 C (mining and quarrying),
NACE D (manufacturing) and NACE E (electricity, gas and
water supply). As all these industries include goods producing
activities, this is presumably the aggregate showing the larg-
est cyclical variations. For Austria, separate data were avail-
able for all three components.
• Real value added at market prices for construction (NACE F).
• The sum of real value added at market prices of wholesale
and retail trade (NACE G), hotels and restaurants (NACE H)
and transport and communication (NACE I). Despite the rela-
tive heterogeneity of these branches, their total is used, as
quarterly data are only available at this level of aggregation.
• The sum of real value added at market prices of financial in-
termediation services (NACE J) and real estate, renting and
business activities (NACE K). Again, only their total is available.
This aggregate is selected mainly because NACE K contains
the production of business-related services, which is supposed
to have risen in cyclical variation, recently. This assumption is
based on the fact, that industry has outsourced a large num-
ber of services in the last decade and increasingly responds
to cyclical bottlenecks in productive capacity by resorting to
personnel service agencies instead of recruiting own staff.
Consequently, it is to be expected that, while industrial output
still shows substantial business cycle variations, value added
16 NACE (Nomenclature d'Activites des Communautes Europeennes) is the harmo-
nised framework for classifying branches contributing to GDP in EU member states.
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Titel
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Autor
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Verlag
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Ort
- Frankfurt
- Datum
- 2008
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Abmessungen
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Seiten
- 236
- Schlagwörter
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Kategorien
- International
- Recht und Politik
Inhaltsverzeichnis
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177