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9
should develop somewhat more smoothly and volatility rising
in NACE K, instead.
All other economic activities like public administration, social ser-
vices (containing education and health services) and other com-
munity, social and personal services (including culture, sports, etc.)
are not considered separately as the production of these services
is not assumed to be subject to business cycle variations. Never-
theless, such production is included in GVA and GDP figures.
According to the general view, the typical business cycle lasts
from around 2 to 8 years17• This calls for the use of economic time
series covering some multiples of that time span in order to isolate
cyclical frequencies and to identify a representative number of
turning points for analytical purposes. Moreover, these series
should be consistent so as to measure output over a long period in
a similar way. Unfortunately, there have been several events
which complicated the search for long and consistent time series,
especially for euro area aggregates.
The process of European integration - moving towards a common
economic policy in the Union - required a harmonisation of the
national accounts framework. Member States have been obliged
to compile their GDP data according to the ESA95 regulation.
Several further regulations have been passed, focussing particu-
larly on national accounts aggregates. This was necessary be-
cause gross national income constitutes the tax base of Member
States' contributions to the Union budget. Furthermore, certain de-
velopment programmes are related to the income of regions or
countries and the Stability and Growth Pact is explicitly linked to
the development of real GDP.
17 Burns -Mitchell (1946) defined it as phases between 6 and 32 quarters, Hording -
Pagon (2002) between 5 and 32 quarters and there are several studies which take
a time span between 8 and 32 quarters as a reference.
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Titel
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Autor
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Verlag
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Ort
- Frankfurt
- Datum
- 2008
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Abmessungen
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Seiten
- 236
- Schlagwörter
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Kategorien
- International
- Recht und Politik
Inhaltsverzeichnis
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177