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des of each series with respect to the reference series, but this
problem seems to be less severe than when using just filtered data.
The largest difference concerning the number of dated cycles be-
tween the dynamic factor approach and just filtered data is for
BK-transformed data. In the case of just filtered data, the refer-
ence series shows 15 turning points, whereas the common com-
ponent of this series reports only 12. Obviously, the dynamic factor
approach discarded one-and-a-half idiosyncratic cycles from the
reference series autGV Aex, but the dates of the remaining turning
points are nearly the same. Such reduction of cycles when clear-
ing for idiosyncratic business cycle movements is also observed for
the other BK-filtered series.
The first turning point detected for both series of BK-filtered
autGVAex is a peak in the second quarter of 1977, followed by a
trough in the third (for just filtered series) or the second quarter (in
the dynamic factor model approach) of 1978, respectively. For
both approaches, the Bry-Boschan routine found the next peak in
the fourth quarter of 1979 and a subsequent trough in the third or
the fourth quarter of 1982, respectively. The next cycle, marked by
a peak in the third quarter of 1983 and a trough in the third quar-
ter of 1984 for just BK-filtered data, was classified as an idiosyn-
cratic cycle by the dynamic factor model and therefore dis-
carded, hence not showing up in the calendar of this approach.
The next peak for the common component hos been detected in
the third quarter of 1985 and is doted one quarter earlier for just
filtered series. The end of the ensuing recession marks a trough
dated at the end of 1987 for both methods. For the dynamic fac-
tor model approach, the following peak is dated in the fourth
quarter of 1991 one quarter earlier than for the just filtered series
( 1
Q 1992). Again, both calendars match for the following trough
that occurred in the third quarter of 1993. The subsequent recov-
ery ended around the turn of the year 1994-1995, with the com-
mon component dating it in the last quarter of 1994 and the just
filtered series at 1
Q 1995. Apart from the different number of cy-
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Titel
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Autor
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Verlag
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Ort
- Frankfurt
- Datum
- 2008
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Abmessungen
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Seiten
- 236
- Schlagwörter
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Kategorien
- International
- Recht und Politik
Inhaltsverzeichnis
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177