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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
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117 des of each series with respect to the reference series, but this problem seems to be less severe than when using just filtered data. The largest difference concerning the number of dated cycles be- tween the dynamic factor approach and just filtered data is for BK-transformed data. In the case of just filtered data, the refer- ence series shows 15 turning points, whereas the common com- ponent of this series reports only 12. Obviously, the dynamic factor approach discarded one-and-a-half idiosyncratic cycles from the reference series autGV Aex, but the dates of the remaining turning points are nearly the same. Such reduction of cycles when clear- ing for idiosyncratic business cycle movements is also observed for the other BK-filtered series. The first turning point detected for both series of BK-filtered autGVAex is a peak in the second quarter of 1977, followed by a trough in the third (for just filtered series) or the second quarter (in the dynamic factor model approach) of 1978, respectively. For both approaches, the Bry-Boschan routine found the next peak in the fourth quarter of 1979 and a subsequent trough in the third or the fourth quarter of 1982, respectively. The next cycle, marked by a peak in the third quarter of 1983 and a trough in the third quar- ter of 1984 for just BK-filtered data, was classified as an idiosyn- cratic cycle by the dynamic factor model and therefore dis- carded, hence not showing up in the calendar of this approach. The next peak for the common component hos been detected in the third quarter of 1985 and is doted one quarter earlier for just filtered series. The end of the ensuing recession marks a trough dated at the end of 1987 for both methods. For the dynamic fac- tor model approach, the following peak is dated in the fourth quarter of 1991 one quarter earlier than for the just filtered series ( 1 Q 1992). Again, both calendars match for the following trough that occurred in the third quarter of 1993. The subsequent recov- ery ended around the turn of the year 1994-1995, with the com- mon component dating it in the last quarter of 1994 and the just filtered series at 1 Q 1995. Apart from the different number of cy-
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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
Titel
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Autor
Marcus Scheiblecker
Verlag
PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
Ort
Frankfurt
Datum
2008
Sprache
englisch
Lizenz
CC BY 4.0
ISBN
978-3-631-75458-0
Abmessungen
14.8 x 21.0 cm
Seiten
236
Schlagwörter
Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
Kategorien
International
Recht und Politik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

  1. Zusammenfassung V
  2. Abstract IX
  3. List of figures and tables XV
  4. List of abbreviations XVII
  5. List of variables XIX
  6. 1. Research motivation and overview 1
  7. 2. The data 7
  8. 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
    1. 3. 1 Defining the business cycle 13
      1. 3. 1 . 1 The classical business cycle definition 13
      2. 3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
    2. 3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 16
      1. 3.2. l Outliers 18
      2. 3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
      3. 3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
      4. 3.2.4 The trend 23
  9. 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
    1. 4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
      1. 4. l . l The empirical NBER approach 42
      2. 4.1 .2 Index models 44
    2. 4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
  10. 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
    1. 5. 1 Time domain statistics for analysing comovements 55
    2. 5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing comovements 56
      1. 5.2.1 Coherence 57
      2. 5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
      3. 5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
      4. 5.2.4 Cohesion 59
  11. 6. Dating the business cycle 61
    1. 6.1 The expert approaches 63
    2. 6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
    3. 6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
    4. 6.4 Threshold autoregressive models 69
  12. 7. Analysis of turning points 71
    1. 7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 71
    2. 7.2 Contingency tab/es for turning points 72
    3. 7.3 The intrinsic lead and lag classification of dynamic factor models 74
    4. 7.4 Concordance indicator 74
    5. 7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
    6. 7.6 Mean absolute deviation 76
    7. 7.7 Triangle approximation 76
  13. 8. Results 79
    1. 8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 79
      1. 8.1.1 First-order differences 79
      2. 8.1.2 The HP filter 80
      3. 8.1.3 The BK filter 80
    2. 8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
      1. 8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle reference series 86
      2. 8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by a dynamic factor model approach 97
    3. 8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
      1. 8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc selection framework 104
      2. 8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the dynamic factor model framework 115
  14. 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
    1. 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
    2. 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
    3. 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
    4. 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
    5. 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
    6. 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
    7. 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
    8. 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
    9. 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
    10. 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
    11. 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
    12. 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
    13. 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
    14. 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
    15. 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
    16. 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
    17. 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
  15. 10. Concludlng remarks 161
  16. References 169
  17. Annex 177
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