Seite - 118 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

118 cles, the trough following that peak is the only substantial differ- ence between both calendars. Whereas for just filtered series it is dated at the second quarter of 1997, the dynamic factor model approach locates it in the first quarter of 1999. This is quite interesting, because usually the detection and exclu- sion of idiosyncratic cycles should not interfere with the dates, but just vary in their number. Looking at Figure 8, this difference can be explained easily by observing the amplitudes of both series. The series reflects both turns, but for the just filtered series the first turn of the second quarter of 1997 is deeper (i.e. has a higher negative amplitude) than the second in the year 1999. In the case of the dynamic factor model approach, it is the other way round and the turn of 1997 had been regarded as too local as to be classified as a trough. Obviously, the amplitude of the turn of 1997 has been magnified by an idiosyncratic component occurring at the same time. For both approaches, the next peak was found at around the middle of 2000, where the common component dates it one quar- ter earlier (in the second quarter) than the just filtered series. The date of the following trough shows the same shift by one quarter. The turning point found in the common component is dated at the second quarter of 2003 and for the just filtered series at the third quarter of that year. Whereas this turning point marks the end of the calendar for series processed by the dynamic factor model approach, just filtered data show an additional phase with a peak at the end of 2004. Again, the number of extra cycles differs be- tween both approaches for nearly all series, albeit only slightly. In order to check the leading and lagging properties of the full set of time series in relation to the reference series, average and me- dian leads and lags - separated by peaks and troughs - are pre- sented in Tables A 9 a to c for the different filtering methods. The unclear picture that emerged for just filtered series in the case of observing first-order differences only improved slightly by clearing for their idiosyncratic cycles. Table A 9 a shows that there is a sub-