Seite - 148 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

148 present study and therefore cannot be compared with our find- ings. The next cycle starts with a peak in 1 Q 1980, for which our first- order-differenced series wrongly show a trough. All our other methods and approaches date this peak at the same quarter as the CEPR. Only the dynamic factor model with BK-filtered data shows it one quarter earlier in 4Q 1979. The CEPR dates the next turning point for the third quarter of 1982. This trough is reflected by all our series. but it is dated one quarter later in 4Q 1982. Again, re- sults based on first-order-differenced data fail to show any rea- sonable result. According to the CEPR, the next cyclical peak is located in the first quarter of 1992. With first-order-differenced data again being un- able to track this. all our other approaches confirm this date. Only our dynamic factor model result for BK-filtered data of euro area GDP (excluding Germany and Austria) dates it again earlier, this time for six quarters. The last turning point found in the CEPR calendar is a trough in the third quarter of 1993. Again. first-order differences failed. Both ap- proaches based on BK-filtered data confirm this turning point and both based on HP-filtered data date this trough one quarter later in 4Q1993. Interestingly, all turning points identified by the CEPR are reflected in our series, despite its focus on GDP growth rates. Obviously, the dating mechanism of the CEPR is able to locate the most con- spicuous turning points. but fails to date smaller cycles. This can be seen as a direct consequence of the inclusion of trend growth which shifts growth rates upward beyond their cyclical behaviour. It is of interest whether this unequivocal set but rather scarce num- ber of turning points is the result of the rule of two quarters of negative growth rates or whether it is obtained by the business cy- cle dating committee of the CEPR on the basis of external infor- mation. In order to check this, we compare our turning point dates