Page - 16 - in THE FIRST WORLD WAR - and the End of the Habsburg Monarchy, 1914 – 1918

16 On the Eve The Austro-Hungarian heir to the throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, even claimed that ‘this is more than a battle won’.9 The next day, life appeared to continue as before  – and yet, something had changed. No comparable parade of the nationalities would ever take place again. In this regard, the jubilee parade marked the end of an era even before it was over. However, the course already been set decades previously, and indeed from 1908 onwards, a process that had been observed over the years by contemporaries and later generations with increasing alarm was merely accelerated. In 1867, the disintegration of the Habsburg Monarchy began with the division of the Empire into an Austrian and a Hungarian half, and the Imperial and Royal Mon- archy was established. Although from then onwards, the processes of dissolution and stabilisation would unfold in parallel, the successful attempts by Hungary to gain inde- pendence became a model for other peoples in the Empire, resulting in periods of de facto ungovernability. After decades of continued efforts to find a long-term solution, the signs of resignation had become evident. Something had to change. This was not only the view of foreign ministers and ‘pre-emptive warriors’, but many others, particu- larly among intellectual circles. In the prevailing attitude during the July Crisis, which is described later, the intelligentsia of Europe, with only a few exceptions, welcomed the prospect of war not only for domestic political reasons, but also from a fundamental sense of conviction. This mood was also strongly felt in Austria-Hungary. Philosophy, sociology, psychology and journalism, and not least historical science, also contributed to the notion of war as a natural and necessary measure. Since the turn of the century, preliminary military exercises had already been conducted whenever war was used as a measure on the international political stage. Hardly a year had passed when there had not been a larger conflict somewhere in the world that had presented a military challenge to the powers of the Concert of Europe. As a result, the distinct expectations and conditions prevailed that ultimately led to the world war being unleashed with just a flick of the hand. Austria-Hungary, which had a ‘deficit of war’, finally did what it believed was necessary within its own territory. The Ballhausplatz and the Deficit of War When analysing the pre-history of the First World War, it is natural to focus on the key role played by foreign policy. It is tempting to look ever further back into the past to explain the causes of the war, and to take into consideration events that occurred long before the outbreak. If one thing or the other had not happened, then this or that event would not have taken place.10 However, among all the processes that had the most sustained impact on the foreign policy of Austria-Hungary at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, the loss of power of the Ottoman Empire stands