Page - 190 - in THE FIRST WORLD WAR - and the End of the Habsburg Monarchy, 1914 – 1918

190 ‘Thank God, this is the Great War!’ north of the Romanian border. On the other hand, Conrad in particular could not close his mind to the argument that with regard to the Romanians, Bulgarians and Turks, success against the Serbs was necessary. If the campaign were to fail, it was likely that war would be declared by Romania, which at the start of the war had remained neutral, but which had shown a clear tendency towards joining the camp of the enemies of the Central Powers. However, the plan was not only to win Bulgaria and Turkey as allies of the Central Powers, but also to establish a connection to the two countries. And as long as Serbia lay in between, there was no possibility of the Bulgarians siding with the Central Powers. Furthermore, the alliance with Turkey, which had been concluded at the end of July, could only be put into effect once a land connection to Turkey was also provided. The idea of sending the Imperial and Royal Fleet to the Black Sea, which was aired on 6 August, had not been further pursued here, since the prospects of success were judged to be zero.449 In spite of everything, Conrad was a prisoner of himself, since it was he who had in- itially advocated, and with great vehemence, a rapid strike in the Balkans. This was also in accordance with the Imperial vote. However, this had come at a time when it was not yet possible to estimate how quickly the situation in the north-eastern theatre of war would develop to Austria-Hungary’s disadvantage. Then, Conrad had perhaps also been convinced that the Serbs would not be able to withstand the onslaught of the Imperial and Royal 5th and 6th Armies, and would immediately retreat far back towards Serbia. The remainder should then have been no problem. However, events turned out very differently. And the political fallout was immediately evident : Romania was less likely than ever before to enter the war on the side of the Central Powers and Turkey, and the Bulgarian Tsar, Ferdinand I, blatantly told the German colonel, Arnd von Leipzig, who had been sent from Berlin to Sofia on a special mission, that following the Aus- tro-Hungarian defeat he could no longer consider leading his people into the conflict against Serbia.450 Turkey also suddenly became more reticent and in an almost demon- strative move put a halt to work on closing off the Dardanelles.451 However, Conrad did not regard this as being primarily a consequence of the military events, although he lost no opportunity in criticising the way in which Potiorek was conducting the war. To a far greater extent, he telegraphed Berchtold on 25 August : ‘The regrettable diplomatic failures, which allowed two allies, Italy and Romania, to fall away without bringing Bulgaria on to the side of the Monarchy, have created a military situation that obliges us to bring as many forces as possible to the main theatre of war, all the more so since the German failure in East Prussia makes our position more difficult and the stance taken by Japan has led Russia to draw on its troops in eastern Asia. General Potiorek has sufficient forces in order to meet a Serbian invasion.’452 Potiorek had a different view in that he not only wished to remain on the defensive and fend off an invasion, but to take offensive action once again. He had succeeded