Page - 848 - in THE FIRST WORLD WAR - and the End of the Habsburg Monarchy, 1914 – 1918

848 Peace Feelers in the Shadow of Brest-Litovsk The October Revolution in Russia changed matters dramatically. Now, it was difficult to assess the situation, however. The Imperial and Royal Army High Command saw the main reason for the development in Russia as the failure of the Provisional Gov- ernment to fulfil the hopes for peace that had initially been awakened. And whether the Bolsheviks would succeed in taking and asserting power in reality was assessed as being just as doubtful. The demands by the Bolsheviks for an immediate ceasefire and the initiation of peace negotiations was categorised by the Austrians as simply ‘dem- agogic’.2016 In the opinion of the Army High Command, given in an initial statement, the success of the revolution would be decided by the front armies and the Cossacks. With regard to the nationalities in Russia, however, its analysis claimed that : ‘The different peoples of Russia, who in their striving for independence or autonomy have already achieved significant advantages, are now preparing to make the final blow. The Ukrainians are siding with the Bolsheviks, since they are the most sincere supporters of an independent Ukraine. The same is likely to be true of the Finns, although in Finland, there are currently severe disputes between the Socialists and the middle-class parties. The Finns may exploit the current situation in order to separate themselves from Russia entirely. All the Cossack clans are joining together to act in unison out of concern for their future. From this side, the Bolsheviks, even after having attained un- limited power, are likely to face the greatest threat. We have also received reports from Siberia about attempts to achieve autonomy. The Caucasus, Lithuania, Estonia, etc. will certainly not allow the favourable opportunity of achieving national advantages to pass by unexploited.’ With regard to the Russian economy, it was determined that the agricultural committee would destroy large-scale landed property, but without increas- ing farmer ownership. The farmers had lost their confidence in Russian paper money, it was claimed, and were keeping their grain hidden. Industries were being closed, and the crisis in the coal and transport sectors continued. Strikes in the Donets Basin and ‘in the petroleum regions’ could only be brought to a halt with effort and by means of significant sums of money, which far exceeded the financial power of the state. Assessments and forecasts made on one day were already rendered obsolete by the events of the next. Emissaries came to no-man’s land with increasing frequency with the aim of negotiating local ceasefires. Since these attempts at making contact initially came from the Russian troops, however, they bore no fruit. The Russians were informed that negotiations could be initiated immediately when authorised representatives ar- rived. Simultaneously, there were mass desertions ; even higher-ranking officers went over to the Central Powers. An increasing number of Russians retreated, tore gaps in the front, burned obstacles and destroyed weapons.2017 What here appeared to point to complete dissolution was at the same time relativ- ised by the formation of a revolutionary army. Item 2 of the deployment order already made it evident that the Bolshevik government not only wanted to do its utmost to