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59 but this time defined only for co within the interval [0, 1t). This meas- ure is related to coherence - as it shows its real part - but instead of rendering values real by a quadratic transformation, the com- plex term is cancelled out by summing negative and positive waves of the same frequency. This can be seen in a different rep- resentation of (28) - ( )_Yb,,(m)+Yb_,(-m) Pb,s (u - 2 This should not be a drawback as (co) and (-co) have the same pe- riodicity, which is the focus of interest in business cycle analysis. Furthermore, the authors stressed that dynamic correlation ob- served at a special frequency band is theoretically fully equivalent to static correlation applied to band-pass pre-filtered data ac- cordingly. 5.2.4 Cohesion In order to analyse the comovement of more than one time series, Cro ux - Forni - Reich/in ( 1999) proposed a multivariate version of the dynamic correlation index. It is constructed by weighing to- gether all dynamic correlation coefficients as defined in (27) and is called cohesion by them (29) ""· . W;W1•Ps-s·(m) h L..,,~J I J CO b (m) = "" L..,;~j W; Wj the p_, being again the dynamic correlation coefficients as de- fined in (27) over all combinations of time series except their di- agonal elements. The authors suggest choosing the weights ac- cording to their economic significance (e.g. by their proportion of contributing to GDP). This statistic has the advantage of allowing to capture common comovements of the underlying set of time series at all frequencies at one glance. This makes it more appro- priate for certain tasks than looking at cross-correlations because
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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
Title
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Author
Marcus Scheiblecker
Publisher
PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
Location
Frankfurt
Date
2008
Language
English
License
CC BY 4.0
ISBN
978-3-631-75458-0
Size
14.8 x 21.0 cm
Pages
236
Keywords
Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
Categories
International
Recht und Politik

Table of contents

  1. Zusammenfassung V
  2. Abstract IX
  3. List of figures and tables XV
  4. List of abbreviations XVII
  5. List of variables XIX
  6. 1. Research motivation and overview 1
  7. 2. The data 7
  8. 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
    1. 3. 1 Defining the business cycle 13
      1. 3. 1 . 1 The classical business cycle definition 13
      2. 3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
    2. 3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 16
      1. 3.2. l Outliers 18
      2. 3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
      3. 3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
      4. 3.2.4 The trend 23
  9. 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
    1. 4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
      1. 4. l . l The empirical NBER approach 42
      2. 4.1 .2 Index models 44
    2. 4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
  10. 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
    1. 5. 1 Time domain statistics for analysing comovements 55
    2. 5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing comovements 56
      1. 5.2.1 Coherence 57
      2. 5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
      3. 5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
      4. 5.2.4 Cohesion 59
  11. 6. Dating the business cycle 61
    1. 6.1 The expert approaches 63
    2. 6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
    3. 6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
    4. 6.4 Threshold autoregressive models 69
  12. 7. Analysis of turning points 71
    1. 7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 71
    2. 7.2 Contingency tab/es for turning points 72
    3. 7.3 The intrinsic lead and lag classification of dynamic factor models 74
    4. 7.4 Concordance indicator 74
    5. 7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
    6. 7.6 Mean absolute deviation 76
    7. 7.7 Triangle approximation 76
  13. 8. Results 79
    1. 8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 79
      1. 8.1.1 First-order differences 79
      2. 8.1.2 The HP filter 80
      3. 8.1.3 The BK filter 80
    2. 8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
      1. 8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle reference series 86
      2. 8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by a dynamic factor model approach 97
    3. 8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
      1. 8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc selection framework 104
      2. 8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the dynamic factor model framework 115
  14. 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
    1. 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
    2. 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
    3. 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
    4. 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
    5. 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
    6. 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
    7. 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
    8. 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
    9. 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
    10. 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
    11. 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
    12. 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
    13. 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
    14. 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
    15. 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
    16. 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
    17. 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
  15. 10. Concludlng remarks 161
  16. References 169
  17. Annex 177
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