Page - 154 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

154 filtered data. While the dynamic factor model approach dates it one quarter later in 3Q 1985, the just BK-filtered gross value added (without agriculture and forestry) dates it two quarters later at the end of the year. The following trough found by Hahn - Walter- skirchen ( 1992) is located at the beginning of 1987 and is not con- firmed by our data. Only the unreliable results based on first-order differences in the case of the dynamic factor model show this trough one quarter earlier. Most of our other methods date it ap- proximately one year later. The last peak found in the reference study was in the second quarter of 1990. Again, the largest part of our results dates it later, this time with a lag of one-and-a-half year. Altogether, the turning points identified by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) seem to match best, if at all, with our BK-filtered data. This is probably due to the fact that both procedures clean for the high frequency irregular component. Apart from dating the time series, the authors examined the co- movement of the business cycle with that of Germany and the US. Looking at time series cross-correlations, they found some lagging property of the Austrian business cycle vis-a-vis the German cycle by one or two quarters. This effect was somewhat reduced when focussing on turning point analysis. In this case, both cycles exhibit a coincident pattern. In our calculations, no leading or lagging property of the Austrian economy based on cross-correlations could be observed. Nevertheless, theoretical considerations would suggest a positive shift of comovement in the last decade, as the Austrian economy advanced to an important producer of car parts supplied to the German automotive industry. From that per- spective, a change from a previously lagging to a more coinci- dent pattern of total gross value added seems plausible. 9 .15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures Based on the results of the present study and the business cycle turning points reported in the literature mentioned above, Table 5