Page - 140 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

140 ing the trough in the first quarter of 1997121• The next peak in the third quarter of 2000 is not shown in our first-order-differenced se- ries. All other approaches confirm this turning point for the indus- trial sector, but only the common component of BK-filtered series dated it for the same quarter. The last turning point found by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) is a trough at the end of 2001. As in the case of the first turning point, this seems to be a false signal. Again, none of our approaches confirm it, nor any results by the authors for Germany and the euro area. Apparently, the procedure for Austria has severe dating problems at either end of the series. Nevertheless, the turning points found in the reference study are very often mirrored by one of our procedures. But the authors use a different band-pass filter which creates a higher leakage prob- lem than our BK filter which sacrifices 6 quarters on either end of the series in order to make the filter work very exactly. It can there- fore be regarded as a kind of mixture between our HP- and BK- filtering procedures. Thus, it is not surprising, that the turning points detected by the authors also seem to be a mixture of those found in our by HP- and BK-filtered series. 9 .8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar - Albers (2001) In this study, the BK band-pass filter is applied to GDP and manu- facturing production of the USA, the euro area as a whole as well separately for its Member States, Sweden and the UK. Simultane- ous cross-correlations have been calculated by the authors with euro area industrial production as the reference series. The quar- terly data cover the period between 1973 and 1996. In order to show the robustness of comovements, the authors additionally split 121 This can be explained by the fact that all our procedures show one complete cycle less than the study by Artis -Marcellino -Proietti (2004).