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9
.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss (1984)
There are several studies focussing especially on Austrian business
cycle behaviour, but covering periods which are outside our time
series domain. Examples are Tichy ( 1972) and Deist/er - Schleicher
( 197 4), with the latter study using spectral analysis methods. An-
other study conducted by Breuss ( 1984) covers at least some part
of the time period of our analysis. In his study, the author used a
large variety of different economic time series in order to classify
them by their leading, lagging and coincident behaviour in the
business cycle. Among these series, also quarterly GDP and indus-
trial production are analysed, which makes it suitable for a com-
parison with our findings. While in this study quarterly GDP covers
the period between 1964 and 1984, the industrial production series
reaches back to 1955 and serves as the reference series for de-
termining the leads and lags.
The study by Breuss (1984) focuses on the deviation cycle as well
as on the classical definition in order to compare the results. Unlike
the present analysis, the author extracted the trend by using the
"Phase-average-trend-procedure" developed by the NBER. As ex-
plained in detail in chapter 3, this method extracts a kind of local
linear trend. Like in our study, the Bry-Boschan routine serves as the
dating algorithm.
Largely in line with theoretical considerations, the author detected
far fewer turning points for the classical approach than when using
the deviation cycle concept. This is true especially for the first half
of his sample, where the Austrian economy enjoyed high trend
growth due to a catching-up process. For our comparison, we
only focus on the deviation cycle concept used by Breuss ( 1984)
and carry out this exercise only for the period overlapping in both
studies.
The first peak identified by Breuss ( 1984) is dated in the last quarter
of 197 6. This turning point of the Austrian business cycle is reflected
by our quarterly gross value added series (excluding agriculture
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Title
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Author
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Publisher
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Location
- Frankfurt
- Date
- 2008
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Size
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Pages
- 236
- Keywords
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Categories
- International
- Recht und Politik
Table of contents
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177