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29 chanical forecast feature which allows de-trending even at the endpoints50. The HP filter calculates the trend component and identifies the cyclical component as the difference between the original series and the trend component51 • The end-point problem is therefore concentrated on changes in the trend component. This makes the HP filter very attractive for practical purposes, but the end-point problem is solved at the cost of the accuracy of the filter. Especially at the end points, the filter works imprecisely in that it shows a stronger leakage. This means that some frequencies be- longing to the trend can pass, whereas fluctuations of cyclical na- ture (especially those of low frequency order) are filtered out. Cogley - Nason ( 1995) and Canova ( 1998) pointed out that de- spite the HP filter's ability to de-trend difference stationary time se- ries, it distorts the frequency spectrum so that business cycle ex- traction could be problematic. 3.2.4.5 The Baxter-King filter Band-pass filters are understood as frequency filters, which give - in their ideal representation - zero weight to the frequency band to be filtered out and unit weight to the rest52. Baxter -King (1995) proposed such a filter for business cycle filtering, which is an opti- mal linear approximation to an ideal band-pass filter. They con- structed a band-pass filter by starting from a low-pass filter, which allows all frequencies w (below or equal a certain threshold .Q?) to pass. This requires that all frequencies get a unit weight p if they are above this threshold and zero otherwise: 50 See Baxter -King ( 1995). 51 See Kranendonk - Bonenl<omp - Verbruggen (2004). 52 In a wider sense, high-pass filters, which filter out all frequencies below a certain frequency threshold (e.g. the trend) as well as low-poss filters, which let pass only frequencies below a certain threshold, can be regarded as band-pass filters. But what is meant here are only the filters which capture the band between two thresholds not belonging to extreme ends.
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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
Title
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Author
Marcus Scheiblecker
Publisher
PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
Location
Frankfurt
Date
2008
Language
English
License
CC BY 4.0
ISBN
978-3-631-75458-0
Size
14.8 x 21.0 cm
Pages
236
Keywords
Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
Categories
International
Recht und Politik

Table of contents

  1. Zusammenfassung V
  2. Abstract IX
  3. List of figures and tables XV
  4. List of abbreviations XVII
  5. List of variables XIX
  6. 1. Research motivation and overview 1
  7. 2. The data 7
  8. 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
    1. 3. 1 Defining the business cycle 13
      1. 3. 1 . 1 The classical business cycle definition 13
      2. 3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
    2. 3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 16
      1. 3.2. l Outliers 18
      2. 3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
      3. 3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
      4. 3.2.4 The trend 23
  9. 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
    1. 4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
      1. 4. l . l The empirical NBER approach 42
      2. 4.1 .2 Index models 44
    2. 4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
  10. 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
    1. 5. 1 Time domain statistics for analysing comovements 55
    2. 5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing comovements 56
      1. 5.2.1 Coherence 57
      2. 5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
      3. 5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
      4. 5.2.4 Cohesion 59
  11. 6. Dating the business cycle 61
    1. 6.1 The expert approaches 63
    2. 6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
    3. 6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
    4. 6.4 Threshold autoregressive models 69
  12. 7. Analysis of turning points 71
    1. 7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 71
    2. 7.2 Contingency tab/es for turning points 72
    3. 7.3 The intrinsic lead and lag classification of dynamic factor models 74
    4. 7.4 Concordance indicator 74
    5. 7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
    6. 7.6 Mean absolute deviation 76
    7. 7.7 Triangle approximation 76
  13. 8. Results 79
    1. 8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 79
      1. 8.1.1 First-order differences 79
      2. 8.1.2 The HP filter 80
      3. 8.1.3 The BK filter 80
    2. 8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
      1. 8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle reference series 86
      2. 8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by a dynamic factor model approach 97
    3. 8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
      1. 8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc selection framework 104
      2. 8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the dynamic factor model framework 115
  14. 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
    1. 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
    2. 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
    3. 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
    4. 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
    5. 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
    6. 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
    7. 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
    8. 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
    9. 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
    10. 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
    11. 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
    12. 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
    13. 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
    14. 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
    15. 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
    16. 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
    17. 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
  15. 10. Concludlng remarks 161
  16. References 169
  17. Annex 177
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