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32 lows for changes in the trend behaviour over time as long as the changes are not too frequentss. An advantage over the HP filter is that the BK filter cancels out higher frequencies above the cyclical variations, too, whereas the former - acting as a pure high-pass filter - still gives an erratic but de-trended output. This can be seen again in Figure 2. The BK filter cancels out lower frequencies dedicated to the trend frequencies below 1t/3. This allows the filter to be applied theoretically even to non-seasonally-adjusted series. A further advantage is that the loss of frequency information due to data aggregation seems to be less of a problem for band-pass filters than for the HP filter. Aadland (2005) has shown that aggre- gated high-pass filtered data (e.g. by the HP filter) can lead to spurious cycles at the business cycle frequencies, if the disaggre- gated data carried strong variations in the high frequency area. This is due to the so-called "aliasing"-problem which arises when high frequency data are observed at lower frequencies. As the BK filter is symmetric like the HP filter, it causes no phase shift. A convenient feature of the BK filter is its transparency. The user can explicitly fix the upper and lower level of the band to be fil- tered; thereby defining what should be understood as the business cycle. Furthermore, the degree of approximation to the ideal band-pass version can be chosen. This can be done by sacrificing observations towards either end point in order to make the filter work more exactly, i.e. to reduce its leakage. The problem of leakage arises with the approximation of the filter. As it is not pos- sible in practice to work with infinitely long time series, shorter filters have to be applied. This has two consequences: First, frequencies can pass which should be filtered out and some are mistakenly fil- tered out which should pass; and second, frequencies are super- imposed at the borders of the frequency band, which appears as 55 See Canova (1998).
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The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
Title
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Author
Marcus Scheiblecker
Publisher
PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
Location
Frankfurt
Date
2008
Language
English
License
CC BY 4.0
ISBN
978-3-631-75458-0
Size
14.8 x 21.0 cm
Pages
236
Keywords
Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
Categories
International
Recht und Politik

Table of contents

  1. Zusammenfassung V
  2. Abstract IX
  3. List of figures and tables XV
  4. List of abbreviations XVII
  5. List of variables XIX
  6. 1. Research motivation and overview 1
  7. 2. The data 7
  8. 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
    1. 3. 1 Defining the business cycle 13
      1. 3. 1 . 1 The classical business cycle definition 13
      2. 3.1.2 The deviation cycle definition 15
    2. 3.2 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 16
      1. 3.2. l Outliers 18
      2. 3.2.2 Calendar effects 20
      3. 3.2.3 Seasonal variations 21
      4. 3.2.4 The trend 23
  9. 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
    1. 4.1 Construction of composite economic indices 42
      1. 4. l . l The empirical NBER approach 42
      2. 4.1 .2 Index models 44
    2. 4.2 Univariate determination of the business cycle 52
  10. 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
    1. 5. 1 Time domain statistics for analysing comovements 55
    2. 5.2 Frequency domain statistics for analysing comovements 56
      1. 5.2.1 Coherence 57
      2. 5.2.2 Phase spectra and mean delay 58
      3. 5.2.3 Dynamic correlation 58
      4. 5.2.4 Cohesion 59
  11. 6. Dating the business cycle 61
    1. 6.1 The expert approaches 63
    2. 6.2 The Bry-Boschan routine 65
    3. 6.3 Hidden Markovian-switching processes 67
    4. 6.4 Threshold autoregressive models 69
  12. 7. Analysis of turning points 71
    1. 7.1 Mean and average leads and lags 71
    2. 7.2 Contingency tab/es for turning points 72
    3. 7.3 The intrinsic lead and lag classification of dynamic factor models 74
    4. 7.4 Concordance indicator 74
    5. 7.5 Standard deviation of the cycle 75
    6. 7.6 Mean absolute deviation 76
    7. 7.7 Triangle approximation 76
  13. 8. Results 79
    1. 8.1 Isolation of business cycle frequencies 79
      1. 8.1.1 First-order differences 79
      2. 8.1.2 The HP filter 80
      3. 8.1.3 The BK filter 80
    2. 8.2 Determination of the reference business cycle 85
      1. 8.2.1 Ad-hoc selection of the business cycle reference series 86
      2. 8.2.2 Determination of the business cycle by a dynamic factor model approach 97
    3. 8.3 Dating the business cycle 104
      1. 8.3.1 Dating the business cycle in the ad-hoc selection framework 104
      2. 8.3.2 Dating the business cycle in the dynamic factor model framework 115
  14. 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
    1. 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
    2. 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
    3. 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
    4. 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
    5. 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
    6. 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
    7. 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
    8. 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
    9. 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
    10. 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
    11. 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
    12. 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
    13. 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
    14. 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
    15. 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
    16. 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
    17. 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
  15. 10. Concludlng remarks 161
  16. References 169
  17. Annex 177
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