Page - 83 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

83 data. In 1984 and 1993, this goes also for troughs. While this lead- ing property would be ideal for forecasting business cycle changes, its erratic movement makes this series unsuitable for that task. If we compare BK- with HP-filtered data, the former appear to evolve more smoothly than the latter which also contain error terms of high variance. But there seems to be no systematic phase shift between the outputs of both methods. Figure 6: Baxter-King filtered GDP of Austria, Germany and the euro area 0,008 0,007 0,006 0,005 0,004 0,003 0,002 0,001 0 ·0,001 -0,002 -0,003 -0,004 -0,005 -0,006 -0,007 I'} i. ---- ,_ 1_-:.. ~ ,,- ' . lL"- _t- ~- i J :~ !""'\ , .. -:. 1\~--tt --r---:.. -- : ; ·, l r '--"•- V . ' I- t u~ ·I.;: !, ~ !, /). ' 1- 1 ~ ~7~ f / --di' +; ' I ' ~ ' t I. \j " 1\ \ I :\ ri 1 ' ~ L- C i\1 ,, 1 . ' ., "-~]' \\ ~ ~ . , A - 'L .. IL--- ·rgJ l ~ ' ~· ~\\ ii :<;;i ii J :-r -- ~lf I L ' \ ! i ~ ' 'f 1 ,,( l . "' I -\ 7 j ' ' u •I \ 1-1976 3-1978 2-1981 1-1984 4-1986 3-1989 2-1992 1-1995 4-1997 3-2000 2-2003 - GER GIF: BKLX Transforrred Series ·· •·• B..R GIF: BKLX Transforrred Series -AUT GIF: BKLX Transforrred Series Source: Own calculations. Figure 6 offers a first insight into possible business cycle comove- ments between Austria, Germany and the rest of the euro area. Again, real GDP has been filtered by all three methods, but for