Page - 84 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

84 clarity only BK-filtered data are shown. All series have been cen- tred by their mean and standardised by their variance 101• Many of the ups and downs of the Austrian GDP (represented by the red line) are mirrored by either the German (blue line) or the euro area component (green line). The number of specific Aus- trian cycles seems to be limited. A remarkable - nearly counter- cyclical - movement can be observed in the first half of the eight- ies, which could also be interpreted as a superimposed leading cycle. In general, no systematic leading or lagging property of the Austrian GDP in relation to the others can be observed; the pat- tern seems to vary irregularly over time. As already mentioned, GDP seems to be too crude an indicator for business cycle analysis. Additionally, sectoral cycles have to be observed; therefore, all three types of filters - the first-order- difference filter, the HP filter and the BK filter - have been applied to the following series for Austria and Germany, separately. Again, the time span ranges from 197 6 to 2005. • Manufacturing (NACE C+D+E), including mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply • Construction (NACE F) • Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G), hotels and restau- rants (NACE H), and transport and communication (NACE I) • Financial intermediation services (NACE J) and real es- tate, renting and business activities (NACE K). 101 The standardisation by their standard deviations has been done in order to plot them in one figure. With this standardisation, deviations from the mean cannot bee compared between time series.