Page - 87 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

87 filtered and the HP-filtered series of both. In order to avoid obstruc- tion, strongly fluctuating first-order differences are not presented. Despite the included dominant irregular component that has passed the HP filter, some common variability can be seen in Fig- ure 7. The development of the filtered Austrian gross value added (again without agriculture and forestry), represented by the red line, seems to follow the green line of the euro area GDP if it de- parts from the mean. This is strong evidence for a close link existing between both cycles. Only for the early eighties and before, some idiosyncratic extra cycles can be observed for Austria, but since the mid-eighties the comovement seems to have become closer. Figure 7: HP/600 filtered euro area GDP and Austrian GVAex 0,012+===.;:=.:.=.:;===.::r===.::r====;:===.:r:===.:r===.::r====c===r:=.:::::i I 0,011° I 0,01 . >--·- - lllf---+-----1--1----+--'>----+--_._-_, ___ __,___. 0,009- ----- -- l----1-----1---1--l' .-· _ _,_ _ __._ _ __,,,,______,1---, 0,008< ----- - (· -----+--_,___ _ _,___,IV, .. :, 1----1--_,__ _ _. .... ,_ _ _,___. 0,007-. - -- - -- ~" - +---+----+--4-: -., J 0,006. ------ -- --· ' · -- -···-·----·•+---.....__-_..}~">' (,1--l----+------II.J•j!'••I---+-----1 ~:~:-+--.,l lt-+-1-1-1----1,~---1--i-r,. ~- "'- '-~'),_______. _ ___, __ l.,_t,...,i ; V ,'"i /· l 0,003 - -o--+--•1-li--,IHI-+---,,·_, 1----+----'---'i-+-lct • ----1--1 0,002: - - - , ,; · I ) J,:Cl 0,001 - - I - .: - • , - - :r f' - o--" - ·----- - ·· - ·:_ II ' " -0.001 - . '1' . : ' -- (:. i' ' _ ', : ~ 1 r: ' I ' ,, '-- -0,002 -' -'!- - . ~ =:: ;.-c,ff..l -f" ' : ' • I 1'/ : \ ' " . , f 0003 , L • _f ~ tf, ii ' ~ »; # 1 -, - - - ~ 1 Ci· ~v.-! 5" I ; .. .- -0,004- . -:; ...,_, __ _,..,J ~l - ~. ·11:·,rf--Jll--+-1--1 -0,005- . ~;. - I I 1 /~ ~ ~- i-ll----+---.a-1-11- , l : , p -0,006. · ·---- · ---- · -- - ------- · ·- · -··-- --- - ~ f-, -+----1- -0,0070 - . ----. 1- L-+---ll--"--+-----1--'i'--l---__;_+----4----+-----I -0,008-i;;- ;;;;· ~:;;;;;;;;;;;;;;j;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;~;;;;;;;;;#;;;;;;;;;;~;;;;;;;;;~;;;;;;;;;;;t;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;j;;;;;;;;;;;;;j;;;;;;;;;;;;I 1-1976 3-1978 2-1981 1-1984 4-1986 3-1989 2·1992 1-1995 4-1997 3-2000 2-2003 Source: Own calculations. Figure 8 gives a still clearer picture, as the BK filter cleaned these- ries for frequencies higher than 6 quarters and lower than 32 quar-