Page - 101 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

101 While results based on just filtered series were quite different for BK- filtered data as compared with the HP and the first-order- difference filter, they now look more similar to each other. In the present instance, nearly all series are classified as coincident ac- cording to their highest cross-correlations with the reference series. Only for the Austrian sector of financial intermediation, real estate and business services, the highest cross-correlation is observed for a lead of 4 quarters. This result is not confirmed in the case of un- cleaned series. There. this sector has been classified as lagging like the series gerGHI and ger JK. Figure 9: Common component and BK-filtered GVAex of Austria 1•1976 3-1 978 1-1981 3-1983 1-1986 3-1988 1-1991 3-1993 1-1996 3-1998 1-2001 3-2003 Source: Own calculations. All in all, quite a similar picture seems to emerge when looking at leads or lags of series represented just by their common variation and the uncleaned series. Only in the case of the series gerGHI and ger JK, idiosyncratic cycles seem to matter. This result is also reflected in the case of BK-filtered data, which implies that this idiosyncratic variability has a frequency that lies within the band of business cycles (i.e. between 6 and 32 quarters). In that respect.