Page - 107 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

107 and forestry) and the euro area excluding both countries. All series start with a peak before 1978 and show nearly the same number of turning points. AutGV Aex shows 15 turning points, against 14 for the two others. Table A 2 shows the exact dates of the reference cycle's (autGVAex) turning points and the leads and lags for the other series in relation to these. The last column shows the number of extra cycles, with unfinished ones (only one peak or trough more) counting as one. As the reference cycle shows 15 turning points and eurGDPex and gerGVAex only 14, they both show one cycle less which is indicated in the last column of the respective rows. According to this table, the Austrian business cycle (represented by the business cycle variations included in the gross value added without agriculture and forestry) recorded a peak in the second quarter of 1977. This was followed by a sharp slowdown reaching its nadir five periods later, in the third quarter of 1978. When look- ing at the upper part of the graph in Figure A 1 d, it becomes ap- parent that between these turning points there was a sharp drop in economic activity. This strong decline in economic activity had been identified as break in the time series and was therefore re- garded as an outlier not to be classified as a turning point. Thereafter, a strong recovery took place reaching its climax at the end of 1979. The second oil price crisis at the end of 1979 led to a period of stagnation, making it hard to find the lowest point as this cycle was tub-shaped. The Bry-Boschan procedure dates its trough in the third quarter of 1982, which seems to mark the end of the stagnation. Only one year later, the Austrian business cycle rose to a peak again, starting a series of rather short cycles. One year later, in the third quarter of 1984, economic activity again fell to a trough, swiftly followed by a peak in the fourth quarter of 1985. After overcoming the trough observed at the end of 1987, the Austrian economy started a long period of undisturbed up- ward movement which lasted for more than four years and ended in the first quarter of 1992. The marked recession that followed this period reached its nadir in the third quarter of 1993. The cycle fol-