Page - 109 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

109 communication sector, idiosyncratic cycles seem to play a role in both countries 111. In order to check for leads and lags of the observed time series, not only cross-correlations and mean delays are informative, but this can be done on the basis of turning points, too. In this regard, it is very helpful to calculate indicators which can give an over- view about such properties. This approach is not only promising when comparing the results with the ones based on cross- correlations and coherences in view of their robustness, but has the additional advantage that leading and lagging features can also be analysed for peaks and troughs separately. Tables A 3 a to c show for all series their leading and lagging properties of turning points, further classified by peaks and troughs. As averages give equal weights to all values, even if they can be considered as out- liers, also the median lag is reported. Table A 3 a shows this kind of statistics for the first-order-difference case. The turning points found in the first-order-differenced series of construction industry (autF) show an average lag of 0.6 quarters vis-a-vis those found in the reference series (autGVAex) with the same sign. Distinguishing between peaks and troughs, peaks show an average lag of 3.2 quarters and troughs a lead of 2 quarters compared with those of the reference series. As these averages can be strongly biased by a single outlier, it is deemed appropri- ate to calculate a median statistic as well. Whereas the median lag of all turning points is two quarters, sign and size of medians broken down by peaks and troughs are similar to the case of av- erages. A different pattern of leads and lags for peaks and troughs is difficult to explain on theoretical grounds. These differences are especially pronounced in the case of first-order-differenced and 111 Interestingly, GDP of Austria and Germany, like the GDP of the rest of the Euro area (eurGDPex) show one cycle less than the reference series, but total Euro Area GDP two cycles less. which is not a consistent result.