Page - 116 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

116 Looking at the results of the just filtered series, the peak following the trough at the beginning of 1980 is dated at the fourth quarter of 1981 , with the following trough at the end of 1983. The equiva- lent peak in the common component is dated at the fourth quar- ter of 1982, with the following trough only at the end of 1986. No other filtering method confirms either of these turning points. For both approaches, HP-filtered data show the same date of the above-mentioned peak as a trough, whereas the subsequent cy- cle is dated by both approaches the same way. Again differences exist at the end of the series. For reasons of space, observed leads and lags of turning points for all other series with respect to the reference series are not inter- preted here. They can be deducted from Table A 8 and com- pared with the results for just filtered series. Noteworthy seems only the fact that for turning point analysis based on common compo- nents, the number of observed extra cycles seems to be higher than for just filtered series. Obviously, the cleaning for idiosyncratic cycles did not reduce the number of turning points, but makes the common cyclicality more visible, so that it becomes easier for the Bry-Boschan algorithm to locate them. Considering the case of BK-filtered data, the number of turning points found is the smallest. This is due to the fact, that it starts dat- ing very late, at the beginning of 1980. Both other methods, the first-order differences and the BK filter, have already identified at least one complete cycle at that time. This interesting fact has al- ready been observed for just filtered data in Table A 2. In the dy- namic factor approach as well as for the just filtered data, the first turning point is a peak in the first quarter of 1980. The following trough is dated differently. In the case of just filtered data it is lo- cated at the end of 1981, whereas for the common component it occurs one year later. The following phase is dated exactly the same way, whereas the subsequent one harmonises only with re- spect to the year of occurrence. For the rest of the series, at least one turning point of a phase is reflected in both calendars. Again, plenty of differences can be found concerning the number of cy-