Page - 129 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

129 euro area shows a turning point with an opposite sign for the be- ginning of 1980, underlining its inappropriateness. In the case of our dynamic factor model approach, again the just first-order- diff erenced data show a trough instead of a peak for the first quarter of 1980. The common component represented in the HP- filtered euro area GDP shows a corresponding turning point in the first quarter of 1980, while BK-filtered data show it one quarter ear- lier, i.e. in the fourth quarter of 1979. The end of the second cycle is dated by Monch - Uhlig (2004) in the third quarter of 1982. In our ad-hoc approach, first-order- differenced euro area GDP shows no turning points around that date. However, HP-filtered data show the trough following the peak of the first quarter of 1980 for the fourth quarter of 1982 and not the third, as suggested by Monch - Uhlig (2004}. The BK-filtered data show it one quarter later, namely in the first quarter of 1983. For the dynamic factor model approach, the results are quite simi- lar: no turning points around 1982 for first-order-filtered data and the same date for the trough in the fourth quarter of 1982. The BK- filtered data show now the same result as the HP series and date the trough in the fourth quarter of 1982, too. The last cycle dated by Monch - Uhlig (2004} starts with a peak in the first quarter of 1992 and a trough one year later. This is hardly supported by our data. Again, first-order-differenced data failed in both approaches to show any of these turning points. HP- and BK- filtered euro area GDP series (again without Germany and Austria) show their troughs only in the second half of 1993 and the preced- ing peaks already in 1990115• Only the common component re- flected in HP-filtered euro area GDP shows a peak in the first quar- ter of 1992, but the subsequent trough is dated not one, but nearly two years later. 115 These different results cannot be explained by different definitions of euro area GDP in both studies, because our dating calendar for Germany shows approxi- mately the same turning points as the one for our euro area.