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a basic structure model approach. In order to obtain stationary
time series necessary for extracting business cycle fluctuations ac-
cording to the deviation cycle approach, they used two consecu-
tively applied HP filters119• The following dating procedure was car-
ried out by a Markov-switching model.
The results for the classical business cycle show that in that case
the conventional wisdom of flatter business cycles in the core
countries is not supported by the study of Artis - Marcellino - Proi-
etti (2004). The steepness as well as the duration of recessions is
much higher than those found for Germany, Italy or the euro area
as a whole. This leads to bigger losses of output during recessions
than in other countries.
The picture changes when one looks at the results for the devia-
tion cycle approach. For Austria, the authors report an average
duration of recessions of around 17 months, which is slightly higher
than for Italy (16 months), but considerably lower than for Ger-
many (20 months) or the whole euro area (23 months). When we
compare these results with those of our study, it can be observed
that the results concerning the length of recessions for first-order-
differenced autCDE {which comes closest to the definition of in-
dustrial production) are much higher, irrespective of whether we
concentrate only on the common component included or not.
The gap is reduced by looking at HP-filtered series and shows quite
similar results for BK-filtered data. This is quite plausible, because
Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) employed some kind of band-
pass filter. Our HP-filtered series show a duration of economic
119 As the HP-filter belongs to the class of high-pass filters, only low frequencies are
filtered out. If two HP-filters with different smoothing properties are applied one af-
ter the other, they can work like a band-pass filter. Nevertheless this sort of band-
pass filtering works not as exactly as the Baxter-King filter. Especially higher fre-
quencies but still within the business cycle frequency band are erroneously filtered
out, whereas high frequencies outside the band remain within the series. Therefore,
the leakage of this filter is much higher than the Baxter-King filter applied in our
study.
The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien
- Title
- The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context
- Author
- Marcus Scheiblecker
- Publisher
- PETER LANG - lnternationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften
- Location
- Frankfurt
- Date
- 2008
- Language
- English
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-631-75458-0
- Size
- 14.8 x 21.0 cm
- Pages
- 236
- Keywords
- Economy, Wirtschaft, WIFO, Vienna
- Categories
- International
- Recht und Politik
Table of contents
- Zusammenfassung V
- Abstract IX
- List of figures and tables XV
- List of abbreviations XVII
- List of variables XIX
- 1. Research motivation and overview 1
- 2. The data 7
- 3. Methods of extracting business cycle characteristics 13
- 4. Identifying the business cycle 41
- 5. Analysing cyclical comovements
- 6. Dating the business cycle 61
- 7. Analysis of turning points 71
- 8. Results 79
- 9. Comparing results with earlier studies on the Austrian business cycle 125
- 9.1 Comparing the results with the study by Altissimo et al. (2001) 126
- 9.2 Comparing the results with the study by Monch -Uhlig (2004) 128
- 9.3 Comparing the results with the study by Cheung -Westermann (1999) 130
- 9.4 Comparing the results with the study by Brandner -Neusser (1992) 131
- 9.5 Comparing the results with the study by Forni - Hallin -Lippi -Reich/in (2000) 132
- 9.6 Comparing the results with the study by Breitung -Eickmeier (2005) 134
- 9.7 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) 134
- 9.8 Comparing the results with the study by Vijselaar -Albers (2001) 140
- 9.9 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Zhang (1999) 142
- 9.10 Comparing the results with the study by Dickerson -Gibson -Tsakalotos (1998) 142
- 9.11 Comparing the results with the study by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) 143
- 9.12 Comparing the results with the dating calendar of the CEPR 146
- 9.13 Comparing the results with the study by Breuss ( 1984) 151
- 9.14 Comparing the results with the study by Hahn - Walterskirchen ( 1992) 153
- 9.15 Comparison of the results of different dating procedures 154
- 9 .15.1 Turning point dates of the Austrian business cycle 155
- 9 .15.2 Turning point dates of the euro area business cycle 156
- 10. Concludlng remarks 161
- References 169
- Annex 177