Page - 137 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

137 By applying the Markov-switching model, Artis - Marcellino - Proi- etti (2004) provided a dating calendar for industrial production of all countries. Compared with our dating for the euro area by the deviation cycle approach they date the first trough in October 1993, which is rather well reflected by our results. In Table A 2, only first-order differences fail to show this; the BK filter dates this trough one quarter earlier in 3Q 1993. Table A 7 shows that for the com- mon component the match is even better. All filtering methods confirm this trough, but again the BK filter dates it one quarter ear- lier. This trough is followed by a peak in the first quarter of 1995. For our just filtered series the results based on first-order-differences again fail to show that. HP-filtered data match only for euro area GDP without considering Austria and Germany. For the euro area as a whole, the peak is dated one quarter later in 2Ql995. In our BK- filtered case, it is the other way round: the peak in euro area GDP as a whole is dated in 1Q1995 ( as it is shown by the authors with their band-pass filter), but with euro area GDP excluding Austria and Germany it is dated at 2Q1995. Using our dynamic factor model results, only euro area GDP excluding Austria and Germany is available. The first-order-differenced as well as the HP-filtered se- ries date the corresponding peak at 2Q1995, whereas it is the same for our BK-filtered series. The next turning point of the reference study is obtained for No- vember 1996. The series just transformed by HP filters show the same date only for eurGDPex, but for the total euro area it is dated one quarter later. This is also the case for our BK-filtered data; both euro area aggregates show their trough in the first quarter of 1997. In the case of our dynamic factor model. again only the HP- and the BK-filtered data show a corresponding trough in the first quarter of 1997. production is more closely linked to the Euro area business cycle than to the Ger- man cycle alone.