Page - 138 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

138 The next turning point found by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) is located in the first quarter of 1998 and a following trough one year later in 1 Q 1999. This cycle does not show up in one of our filtering techniques and business cycle determination procedures. The rea- son could be the small amplitude of both phases as reported by the authors. The last turning point of the reference study is a peak in the fourth quarter of 2000. This is reflected rather well by our se- ries (except those filtered by first-order differences), but in most cases this turning point is dated one quarter earlier. Table 3: Business cycle turning points for Austria, Germany and the euro area Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Austria 2Q1994 2Q1995 1Q1997 2Q1998 1Q1999 3Q2000 4Q2001 Germany 3Q1993 4Q1994 1Q1996 1QJ998 1Q1999 4Q2000 Euro area 4Q1993 1Q1995 4Q1996 1Q1998 1Ql999 4Q2000 Source: Artis -Marcellino -Proietti (2004). For Germany, the authors found six turning points of the business cycle reflected by the industrial production index. Compared with our first-order-difference results as given in Table A 2, none of them matches. A little better is the situation for HP-filtered series. Looking at just filtered series or the ones transf armed by the dynamic factor model, some of the turning points found by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) are mirrored in our calendar. The closest matches are achieved with our band-pass-filtered se- ries, which are processed in a similar way as the double HP of the authors. In the case of our just filtered series, the trough in 1993 is dated in the same quarter for gerCDE, gerGVA, gerGVAex and the German GDP. This goes also for our dynamic factor model approach with BK-filtered series. The following peak located in the fourth quarter of 1994 for just BK-filtered data is dated one quarter