Page - 139 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

139 later in our study. The common component shows the peak for gerCDE one quarter and for gross value added 4 quarters later. The cycle showing a trough in 1 Q 1996 and a peak in 1 Q 1998 in the study of Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) is not mirrored in our se- ries. Only the just HP-filtered series dates the trough exactly but misses therefore the next peak and the subsequent trough. Probably this missing cycle can be explained by its low amplitude. The trough shown for Germany in the first quarter of 1999 is con- firmed by our just HP-filtered series, but it is dated one quarter later for manufacturing (gerCDE) and gross value added excluding ag- riculture and forestry (gerGVAex). In our dynamic factor model approach, only the BK-filtered series succeeded in dating this turn- ing point in the same quarter. Most interesting for our study are the turning points found by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) for Austria. In their study, the first trough is dated for the second quarter of 1994. This trough seems to be a false signal. None of our approaches confirms it, they date it rather around the one found by the authors for Germany and the euro area in the third or fourth quarter of 1993. The following peak of the reference study in 2Q 1995 is confirmed especially well in our BK-filtered data. The dynamic factor model dates the peak of BK- filtered gross value added of the manufacturing sector (autCDE) one quarter earlier, the just BK filter approach dates it one quarter later. The next trough dated by Artis - Marcellino - Proietti (2004) for the first quarter of 1997 has been found only by our just BK- filtered series· and the HP-filtered common component and is dated for the industrial sector at the same quarter. The following upper turning point in the second quarter of 1998 has not been in- dicated by any of our series. The trough shown by the reference study for the first quarter of 1999 is only reflected by the series which did not succeed in show-