Page - 145 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

145 filtered series. The common component reflected in our BK-filtered euro area GDP fails to indicate this turning point123• The last trough found by Artis - Krolzig - Toro (2004) for European GDP is in 2Q 1993. Both calendars for our HP-filtered series date this trough two quarters later, whereas both approaches based on BK- filtered series date it only one quarter later in 3Q 1993. First-order differences again show no meaningful results. It is difficult to compare the turning points for the Austrian business cycle with those found by Artis -Krolzig -Toro (2004). For individual countries, they give no dating calendars but instead plot the probabilities for industrial production of being in either state of the business cycle. Thus, the only possibility to date them approxi- mately is by visual inspection when results are compared to our findings for manufacturing production autCDE. The first cycle for Austria shows a trough around the end of 197 4 and a peak at the beginning of 197 6. These are both located out- side our sample period. The first turning point that can be com- pared to ours is a trough at the beginning of 1982. This turning point is reflected only by our just HP-filtered series which dates it at the last quarter of 1981. Apart from the first-order-differenced se- ries (which again fail to give a comparable result), all other meth- ods employed date this trough more towards the end of 1982. The following peak identified by the authors for the Austrian busi- ness cycle is around the end of 1983. Whereas our BK-filtered series confirm this date, both procedures based on HP filters identify it one quarter later in 1 Q 1984. The ensuing contraction ends with a trough located around the beginning of 1986. This turning point is not reflected by our results. It is rather located in 1987 in most of our series, but for that period the authors show a peak instead. The 123 It has to be kept in mind that our definition of euro area in the case of the dy- namic factor model does not comprise Austria and Germany.