Page - 149 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

149 for the euro area with those gathered solely on the basis of the rule of using two quarters of negative growth rates 125. According to Table 4, euro area GDP since 1976 exhibited four pe- riods of quarter-to-quarter negative growth rates based on sea- sonally adjusted series. The first recession starts in the second quar- ter of 1977 with a growth rate only slightly below stagnation, which is probably the reason, why this is not reflected by the CEPR dating calendar. Compared with the present study, this turning point shows up only in our two series of first-order differences, with a turn- ing point two quarters later in 4Q 1977. All our other approaches do not mirror that trough. In 2Q 1980, growth rates were negative for three consecutive quarters. Again, only our first-order differences show this trough, but date it one quarter earlier in 1 Q 1980. Con- trary to this, the CEPR as well as all our other approaches show a peak instead in 1 Q 1980 or at the end of 1979, respectively. The next episode of negative growth rates started 2Q 1982, with a rate close to stagnation. The CEPR dates this trough in 3Q 1982 and all our approaches - apart from first-order differences, which fail again - date this by 4Q 1982. When using the growth rate concept for locating turning points, this method should show some leading property, which can actually be observed in this case. Observing the next and last trough, represented by the series of five consecu- tive quarters of negative growth starting in 2Q 1992, this property becomes apparent, too. Our dating based on BK-filtered series, as well as the CEPR dating committee dates this in 3Q 1993, our HP- filtered series in 4Q 1993. Obviously, the CEPR does not strictly adhere to the negative growth rate rule for dating troughs. It probably uses additional in- formation leading to a slight shift in the dates of the turning points into the past. Furthermore, different vintages of the GDP growth 125 A similar dating calendar, but for Austrian GDP, can be found in Scheiblecker (2002).