Page - 152 - in The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

152 and forestry) only for first-order differences. While our HP-filtered se- ries fail to show this cycle, the BK-filtered ones date it two quarters later in 2Q 1977. The following trough in the first quarter of 1978 is again not mirrored by our HP-filtered series: while first-order differ- ences date this one quarter earlier, our BK-filtered dates it one quarter later in 2Q 1978. The next and last cycle shown in the overlapping period of both studies is a peak dated by Breuss ( 1984) at the beginning of 1980. Whereas our first-order-differenced series show a trough for exactly the same quarter, this time the HP-filtered data confirm this peak for the same date. Both of our approaches based on BK-filtered data date the corresponding peak one quarter earlier. Breuss ( 1984) dated the following trough in the first quarter of 1983. This matches best with our dynamic factor model approaches for HP- and BK-filtered data, but both date it one quarter earlier, i.e. in the last quarter of the previous year. In the case of just filtered series, only the BK-filtered series show this turning point, but it is dated two quarters earlier in 3Q 1982. All our other approaches fail to show this trough. It is difficult to judge which of our approaches are best compara- ble with the results of Breuss (1984). Apart from the small number of common turning points, they are matched by different ap- proaches. If a statement is possible at all, a slightly closer matching to our BK-filtered series can be observed. This finding is supported by the fact that the length of cycles from peak to peak as well as trough to trough calculated by Breuss ( 1984) of 16 quarters each is quite close to the results for our BK-filtered data given in Ta- ble A 4 c with 15.5 and 16 quarters, respectively. For first-order dif- ferences and HP-filtered data, the average is around 20 quarters.